Two contenders stand out in West Virginia Derby

Few surprises are occurring lately in 3-year-old graded stakes races, and the Grade 3, $500,000 West Virginia Derby on Saturday at Mountaineer, in all likelihood, will turn out formful as well. The top two choices on the morning line, Once On Whiskey and Draft Pick, appear to be on the upswing in form heading into this race. 

Once On Whiskey is slightly preferable, and the Los Alamitos Derby (G3) visually seems like a stronger race than the Iowa Derby (G3), whose winner is also entered here.

Once On Whiskey and Draft Pick faced a small field in the Los Alamitos Derby, but it did include well-known opponents in the Bob Baffert-trained Ax Man and Peter Pan Stakes (G3) winner Blended Citizen, who came off a poor effort in the Belmont Stakes.

The first turn shows a tale of two trips between Once On Whiskey and Draft Pick. 

From the rail, Draft Pick found a cozy inside path behind the leader and saved all the ground, while Once On Whiskey went about three or four wide. 

Draft Pick then proceeded to settle on Ax Man’s flank through moderate fractions with King Cause to their outside. Once On Whiskey continued to race wide just outside of Blended Citizen, who unexpectedly began to struggle approaching the far turn. 

On the turn for home, Draft Pick put away the two runners who should be sprinters, Ax Man and King Cause. He was urged heavily with left-handed strikes. However, Once On Whiskey started to mow him down when clear sailing appeared in the lane. The son of Bodemeister really moved nicely in the last few strides under Flavien Prat. 

Draft Pick gets a little more pace credit though, as he pressured the speedy Ax Man early. He never quit in the stretch run either. 

Together, the two horses finished five lengths ahead of Ax Man and King Cause, and another five lengths came between King Cause and Blended Citizen. Despite the relatively tame TimeformUS Speed Figures (112 and 113), Once On Whiskey, and to a lesser extent Draft Pick both turned in good efforts from a visual standpoint.

Are there any downsides to the pair? Despite how strong Once On Whiskey and Draft Pick appeared, a 112 is not that fast on the TimeformUS scale. Speed figures are not the final word in handicapping, but it would feel better to see some kind of real advantage. Once On Whiskey and Draft Pick will offer little value to bettors, too. 

Fourth-place finisher King Cause also shows up in this spot, but wait for him to cut back at a later point. He does not fit at this distance.  

In the Iowa Derby, High North, Mr Freeze and Lionite finished close together at the wire, and right off the bat that is a bad sign. Bunched-up finishes are for turf races.  

To backtrack to the start, though, The Tabulator set those horses up with a fast pace early on. According to TimeformUS, the first three fractions are marked in red, so High North, Mr Freeze and Lionite had every right to close well toward the end. 

The eventual winner High North actually tucked in behind The Tabulator and the longshot Battle at Sea, so he enjoyed a cozy trip saving all the ground on the rail. High North continued to race on the rail through the middle portion, and once they turned for home he found a way inside The Tabulator.

With such a great trip, it would be expected that High North opens up on the field. But he struggled slightly to get by The Tabulator, and Mr. Freeze was gaining late. 

Lionite settled behind the leaders early and saved ground turning for home too. After High North slipped under The Tabulator, a big opening came up between them for Lionite to shoot through. Instead, the Quality Road colt inched his way to third.

High North has already raced nine times, and Lionite shows eight starts on record. Mr Freeze only made his third career start in the Iowa Derby, so it is possible he has yet to reveal his full potential. Regardless, all three horses look average.  

As for Rugbyman, who did not run in the Los Alamitos Derby or Iowa Derby, he is an interesting Tapit colt who broke his maiden in the mud by 14 lengths at Belmont. 

He then backed up the effort with a strong second in the Easy Goer Stakes. 

Note how wide Rugbyman went on the turn. 

The distant fourth in the Dwyer afterwards is a little disappointing, though. 

Yes, Rugbyman got squeezed at the break and used some energy to establish position. But he sat off two dueling leaders in Noble Indy and Mendelssohn, and both horses were tired. As Firenze Fire blew by all of them, Rugbyman offered nothing.

Does he run worse with the blinkers on? Perhaps Rugbyman deserves another chance from bettors to show his real talent. 

Pamir is overmatched in this race, while the 50-1 Caloric is mildly interesting because he posted a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Ohio Derby, despite finishing seventh by 10 lengths. Notice his dirt speed figures keep moving up. 

Also, the Ohio Derby appears strong on paper, as Trigger Warning and Title Ready finished second and third in the Indiana Derby (G3), and Flameaway ran second in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) to the erratic Tenfold. Lone Sailor and Core Beliefs settled for third and fourth in the Haskell Invitational (G1), but they also faced Good Magic. 

If nothing else, Caloric could be an intriguing trifecta or superfecta option underneath. 

Once On Whiskey and Draft Pick are the ones to beat in the West Virginia Derby. Bettors should not take those two lightly. But there are a few value options as well, such as the lightly-raced Rugbyman and the longshot Caloric.