Nysos should handle longer tests on Kentucky Derby trail

After his eye-catching win in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar, the Bob Baffert-trained Nysos put himself in the mix of the best 2-year-olds out there. In two starts, the son of Nyquist has done nothing but dominate his opponents and give the impression that he might develop into a star in the near future as he marches onto the difficult Kentucky Derby trail. 

Even though he cannot earn points under Baffert, Nysos likely will take a shot at a Derby prep next time. Can Nysos handle route distances on the trail as he takes his next steps toward the Kentucky Derby in May?

At this point, all signs point to yes.

The most important clue to whether Nysos can run longer comes from watching him run, especially when he opens up on the field in the stretch.

When Nysos held the edge over Stronghold at the top of the stretch in the Bob Hope, Flavien Prat had not even begun to ask the colt. After a smooth lead switch, Nysos built upon his lead in a fluid manner until he won by 8 3/4 lengths ahead of Stronghold in second and 12 lengths ahead of Tejon Pass in third.

Keep in mind that Stronghold broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in a one-turn mile while earning a great time. He did not show any stamina questions for seven furlongs on paper. But against Nysos in a seven-furlong race, Stronghold became tired and lost ground in the stretch. 

Nysos also broke his maiden in a similar fashion in a six-furlong race on Oct. 21 at Santa Anita by building on his lead in the stretch until he won by an impressive 10 1/2 lengths. The final margin came after leading by "only" three lengths after five furlongs.

Most horses who can finish a seven-furlong race in that type of manner will not mind running route distances from eight to nine furlongs. His tactical speed and ability to switch leads help him finish in that strong manner. Note how the point where he builds upon his lead in the stretch comes at the lead switch. 

In addition, Nysos shows stamina influences on the top and bottom.

As described in an earlier post, Nysos’ sire Nyquist won the Kentucky Derby in 2016 and repeatedly has shown the ability to sire routers. This year, two Grade 1-winning routers by Nyquist include the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) winner Slow Down Andy and Alabama Stakes (G1) winner Randomized. The Alabama is run at 10 furlongs. 

On the bottom side of Nysos’ family, the name that clearly sticks out is his third dam Unbridled Elaine, who won the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. In her broodmare career, Unbridled Elaine was the dam of Seresas Spirit, the second dam of Nysos and a half-sister to the stakes-winning router Etched.  

Etched was a two-time nine-furlong winner in his career, with one of those wins coming in the Monmouth Cup Stakes (G3) before a sixth-place finish in the famous 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic won by Blame.

And do not forget Nysos’s damsire. Bernardini took the 2006 Preakness Stakes (G1) amid a cloud of tragedy before going on to capture 10-furlong route races such as the Travers Stakes (G1) and Jockey Gold Cup Stakes (G1).

Bernardini has sadly passed on, but some of his recent graded-stakes-winning dirt routers as a sire include the Pegasus World Cup (G1) champion Art Collector and Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) winner West Will Power. With A.P. Indy as his own sire, Bernardini should prove a benefit in terms of stamina.

Not every horse runs to their breeding. The Breeders’ Dirt Mile champion Cody’s Wish shows a stamina-filled pedigree and could not handle the extra distance in the nine-furlong Whitney Stakes (G1). But on paper, Nysos sports a pedigree that hints at a router in both his sire and dam families.

With those points in mind, Nysos should find success on the Derby trail as he races in route races, at least in California. Whether Nysos will handle 2-year-olds from other circuits might remain the bigger question, although he did crush Stronghold, who broke his maiden at Churchill Downs.  

Expect Nysos to make plenty of noise soon in important races.