Nest can win Belmont Stakes if distance moves her up

Nest takes a shot against males in the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes on Saturday for trainer Todd Pletcher, a man who has won this race with the filly Rags to Riches in 2007. Even though Nest belongs in the Belmont, choosing the filly requires faith that the 1 1/2 miles elevates her to a new level.

On previous form alone in normal route races, Nest is not fast enough to beat the best 3-year-old males. Reaching this conclusion does not require speed figures. The runner-up effort to Secret Oath in the Kentucky Oaks last month is enough evidence.

Secret Oath competed against males twice this year. In her first attempt, she flattened out to third in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn in April. In fairness though, Secret Oath endured a less than ideal trip when making a six-wide move, and she went on to capture the Kentucky Oaks by two lengths over Nest the following month.

With the poor trip in the Arkansas Derby noted by most handicappers and a win over Nest in the Kentucky Oaks, Secret Oath went into the Preakness Stakes against males as one of the popular contenders at single-digit odds. In a repeat of the Arkansas Derby effort though, Secret Oath rallied wide on the far turn and flattened out to fourth.

Going back to the Kentucky Oaks, Nest had every chance to beat Secret Oath after tipping out at the top of the stretch. She had a clear run to the front, even with Desert Dawn beside her, but Nest could not move forward as Secret Oath widened the margin in midstretch to win by two lengths.

Given Nest failed to beat Secret Oath, there is no reason to believe Nest can defeat the best 3-year-old males at typical route distances. At nine furlongs, she is near Secret Oath’s level, and Secret Oath cannot win against males at the Grade 1 level.

The Belmont Stakes is not a typical route though. Entrants must travel the 1 1/2-mile distance for the first time in their lives, and possibly the only time. Good past form remains important, but sometimes the marathon distance brings other horses with better stamina and slower past figures or ugly form into contention.

For Nest to capture the Belmont, she needs the 1 ½ miles to move her up onto another level. Based on pedigree, the distance might help.

Nest is a daughter of Curlin, an excellent stamina influence who lost the historic 2007 edition of this race by a head to Rags to Riches. Curlin progeny make great routers, and Nest is another one in a long list of them.

On the bottom side, Nest’s first dam Marion Ravenwood is a daughter of A.P. Indy, the 1992 Belmont Stakes winner who is widely regarded as one of the best stamina influences in the industry as well. In a 10-race career, three of Marion Ravenwood’s four lifetime wins came in route races. Marion Ravenwood also produced last year’s Santa Anita Handicap (G1) winner Idol, who has been in poor form since that win.

With those stamina-oriented names on the top and bottom of Nest’s pedigree, there is a chance she can simply outlast the males to win.

From a visual standpoint too, Nest looks like she wants more distance. Remember Nest’s effort in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) last December?

Nest took forever to pass Magic Circle and Venti Valentine in the nine-furlong race. She did not look tired though. Nest just could not accelerate fast enough, but she kept coming at those fillies steadily and won by a neck.

Even when watching her loss in the Kentucky Oaks, Nest kept grinding away in the stretch at the same pace like a filly who wanted more distance. The fact that she never let Desert Dawn pass her is a positive.

How did Nest explode past the field in the Ashland Stakes (G1) to win by 8 1/4 lengths? Interstatedaydream probably did not fire her best shot, while the third choice Happy Soul could not handle the route distance.

Is Nest a good bet considering the popularity behind her and trainer Todd Pletcher? Well, that is a different discussion to make. At the end of the day, bettors pay some kind of “tax” because casual bettors will play Nest blindly either because she is a filly or trained by Pletcher, or for both reasons. For many casual players, she will be popular. 

Odds and value aside, Nest is probably a contender.