National Treasure could liven up Preakness pace

Even though the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico appears soft at first glance with Coffeewithchris and First Mission expected to show speed, one natural stalker on the rail has the potential to keep the pace honest on Saturday, and he even could get sent to the lead. That colt is National Treasure.

After an unsuccessful attempt at the Santa Anita Derby (G1) under trainer Tim Yakteen, National Treasure starts once again for Bob Baffert in the second leg of the Triple Crown. As most racing fans know, Baffert loves to control races with speed, although not all his horses own enough of it to lead. National Treasure does own the speed. 

Dating back to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November, National Treasure has made use of a stalking style, which led to a third-place finish in that race behind the winner Forte and Cave Rock. He then ran third in the Sham Stakes (G3) in January before needing time off and returning with a fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Despite running as a stalker in those three starts, National Treasure possesses the capability to set the pace. For example, in his maiden win at Del Mar last September, National Treasure set the pace in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint with fractions of 21.89 seconds, 44.37 and 1:10.08.

National Treasure won by 1 1/2 lengths over his stablemate Massimo, with the future Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move finishing third. 

Note that National Treasure’s pacesetting tactics came with blinkers on, and he gets blinkers back on in the Preakness. In most cases, trainers add blinkers when they want the horse to focus or show more speed.

In only his second start, National Treasure took a shot at the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) and ran without blinkers. But National Treasure did show good speed anyway by sitting about a length or two off his stablemate Cave Rock through fractions of 22.96 and 46.82 seconds.

In the first turn, National Treasure went wide on purpose along with Hejazi to avoid a direct duel with their stablemate Cave Rock. Cave Rock ran away from the field in the stretch for the dominating win, but National Treasure deserves credit for putting in a good effort to finish second by 3 1/2 lengths over Hejazi in third.   

Based on those starts, the blinkers-on equipment change and the rail draw, National Treasure likely will get sent to the lead. If nothing else, he has enough speed to keep Cofffeewithchris and First Mission honest. 

If this colt can set the pace with lively fractions in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint, then no real reason exists for why he cannot lead the Preakness if the jockey asks him from the start. The ability to show early speed does not disappear easily, especially in the Baffert barn. 

In other words, the Preakness pace could heat up to a moderately fast to fast tempo with National Treasure aiming to start quickly and set the pace.

If National Treasure fails to break well for any reason, the pace might end up as moderate if Coffeewithchris and First Mission lead by themselves and National Treasure ends up in his usual stalking position.   

Coffeewithchris set the pace in his most recent start in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park. But to National Treasure and First Mission, Coffeewithchris’ pace presence will feel like almost nothing since he belongs to a lower class. His two stakes wins came in the Heft Stakes and Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel, and those were ungraded at a lower-tier track.

As for First Mission, he runs as a close-range stalker and made use of those tactics when he won the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland in April. In that race, First Mission beat a speedy Baffert-trained colt named Arabian Lion and Disarm in third. Disarm went on to run a good fourth in the Kentucky Derby.

First Mission might find himself crossing over from the outside and sitting off National Treasure and Coffeewithchris. His past performances indicate he wants to settle around third and behind the leaders, and he should get that opportunity.  

The point is not to assume the pace will run slowly or that Coffeewithchris and First Mission are the only two expected speed horses in this race. National Treasure starts for a barn that typically wins big races with pacesetter types, and Baffert could end up instructing Velazquez to see what happens with National Treasure loose.

Perhaps this is another situation where Baffert controls the early pace with a colt with some talent and finds success in yet another Triple Crown race.