Analysis: Will Mind Your Biscuits get the Whitney 2018 distance?

Handicappers can tell if a sprinter is capable of going farther using a few methods, including studying bloodlines. The top half of the family is shaky when it comes to routing, but underneath, Mind Your Biscuits' pedigree reveals some favorable clues. 

For instance, Mind Your Biscuits’ siblings Gunkirk and Rockjaz were only claiming-level runners, but the three wins between them are all at one mile or longer. Furthermore, the dam Jazzmane is a half sister to the Canadian champion Kimchi, who took the 2006 Woodbine Oaks at the same 1 1/8-mile distance as the Whitney.   

While Mind Your Biscuits’ sire Posse was a sprinter, that does not necessarily disqualify him from siring routers. It all depends on the kind of mare sent to him. It seems like Jazzmane’s influence should be enough for nine furlongs.

But what about the actual form on paper? Searching for clues in Mind Your Biscuits’ past races to figure out whether he can go long is admittedly tough.

Closing sprinters with a gradual move are the kind of horses that successfully stretch out best, and in contrast Mind Your Biscuits’ six-furlong races seem a bit flashy.

The most notable recent example is the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), where he came out of nowhere to rally and pick up the win at the last second.

The 5-year-old son of Posse made up ground quickly in a short period, and that is not the sign of a horse who will enjoy competing at nine furlongs.  

A less obvious example is the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Del Mar, in which Mind Your Biscuits went from last to third with another quick move in a short amount of time.

Mind Your Biscuits did not win, but the main point is, he expended a lot of energy at a specific point to gain his new position.

Compare those races to his Metropolitan Mile (G1) effort, where he gradually came toward Bee Jersey at the end. Mind Your Biscuits did not appear so flashy in his last start. 

Note his closer earlier position, too. Mind Your Biscuits did not come from last this time because he is used to a sprint pace, so he settled just behind the leaders. 

The longer distance resulted in Mind Your Biscuits laying closer to the pace, and it dulled out the sharpness of his kick. He seemed to inch and inch his way forward.

Stalling in the lane could also mean the horse wants a longer distance, but in this case, the concern is Mind Your Biscuits already proved himself better at six furlongs. It would be different if he showed dull, gradual moves at six furlongs, because then it could be argued he needs a slower pace and more distance. 

Mind Your Biscuits also competed in the Cigar Mile (G1) last November, and he made his usual move on the turn. But then he appeared to hang slightly and lose ground.

Did he hang because of the distance, or did he just face a sharp Jorge Navarro-trained Sharp Azteca, who ran like he never got tired?

The tepid conclusion is that Mind Your Biscuits looks less flashy at one mile compared to six furlongs, which might mean one-mile is the limit.

Even though Summers said, “everything he's always shown me over his entire career is that he can do it,” in 22 starts his connections chose not attempt Mind Your Biscuits at a distance farther than one mile.

With races such as the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Pegasus World Cup, there is a lot of money out there for a Grade 1 dirt router to earn. Why hold back until now?

But to counter the above logic, Mind Your Biscuits’ lifetime best TimeformUS Speed Figures came in the Met Mile and Cigar Mile, as he earned a 130 and 128 in both losses.  

In other words, it is a tossup. The pedigree and speed figures say "yes" to Mind Your Biscuits going longer, but the actual races on replay hint “no.”

Another concern is that he might run too close to the pace. Summers said, “I expect him to be much closer with Diversify coming drawn out in the sixth [post].”

Diversify will not rate, even if he breaks poorly or gets caught wide. This horse is determined to make the lead, especially in a longer route. He will make it hard on Backyard Heaven, Dalmore or any other horse who settles near him.

Assuming Mind Your Biscuits still makes his usual move and passes them, he then needs to worry about a proven router in Good Samaritan, who will love a fast pace.

Tapwrit, Discreet Lover and McCraken complete the field, and none of them figure to factor.

Mind Your Biscuits must be considered, despite the low value. But there is the old saying in handicapping to never completely trust a favorite trying something new. Even though Mind Your Biscuits is the second choice, the lesson still applies.