Analysis: Midnight Bisou vulnerable at Alabama's distance

"Consistent" feels like the right word to describe Midnight Bisou, who comes into Saturrday's Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga as the heavy favorite. In eight career starts, six of them in 2018, she has never finished out of the Top 3. Neither the trainer or circuit change seems to matter, as Midnight Bisou was transferred to Steve Asmussen earlier in the year and is now based in New York. 

She just keeps firing solid races. 

But Midnight Bisou’s expected value will be low in the Alabama as she tries 1 ¼ miles for the first time. Ever hear the old handicapping advice, "Play against a favorite trying something new for the first time"? With all the hype she generates, this is the right time to score against her.

First, it will be helpful to review her past races.

The two starts to study from Midnight Bisou are the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Kentucky Oaks. Both events featured the best 3-year-old filly in the nation, Monomoy Girl. And in both starts, Midnight Bisou lost ground in the stretch after good trips.

Through the first half of the CCAO, Midnight Bisou chased Monomoy Girl and Gio Game in a dream spot stalking in third, with no horses surrounding her.

On the far turn, Midnight Bisou inched forward and almost reached the side of Monomoy Girl as the longshot Gio Game faded. But she began to stall. Monomoy Girl pulled clear by a couple of lengths, and Midnight Bisou held second a few lengths back.

She did not follow through with her rally in the Kentucky Oaks, either.

Take Charge Paula set a fast enough pace, opening in 23.48 and 47.70 for a nine-furlong race. Monomoy Girl pressed her, while Midnight Bisou settled towards the rear. Midnight Bisou began to pick off horses and position herself outside.

Midnight Bisou made a sweeping move around the far turn, and had dead aim on Monomoy Girl and Wonder Gadot if she could sustain the rally. She hung a bit though and lost ground, just doing enough late work to hold off Eskimo Kisses for third.

For a horse who has turned in sharp races at shorter distances, it is not a good sign to see her stall at nine furlongs. It should mean that distance is her limit.

One alternative to Midnight Bisou is Talk Veuve to Me, who is the second choice on the morning line and comes off a sharp win in the Indiana Oaks (G2). 

Visually, she looked awesome while handling a fast pace and coasting home.

The Rodolphe Brisset-trained filly made her previous four starts at one mile or less, and posted promising runner-up performances in the Eight Belles (G2) and Acorn Stakes (G1), where she finished second by about two lengths to Monomoy Girl.

Additionally, she is strong on the TimeformUS Speed Figure scale, as she posted a lifetime-best 122 in the Indiana Oaks win, matching Midnight Bisou’s career-best.

From a pedigree standpoint, there is no reason Talk Veuve to Me cannot run this far, as her damside is strong in route influences.

For instance, the dam Biblical Point is a full sister to Winning Point, who ran as a modestly-talented router in her career. She finished second in such races as the 2007 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) and Delaware Oaks (G2). Furthermore, the third dam Star in the North produced a marathon hurdler Mountain Kingdom, who competed in Europe.

While Talk Veuve to Me broke her maiden at six furlongs by 11 lengths, and horses who show brilliance at shorter distances should be considered suspect running longer, Talk Veuve to Me’s Indiana Oaks effort gives a lot of optimism.

Those searching for a longshot might consider Figarella’s Queen at 15-1. She finished an even second to Talk Veuve to Me in the aforementioned Indiana race. 

Why would the result turn out any different? “Even” is the key word. Figarella’s Queen has not shown brilliance at shorter distances, as she needed a two-turn turf route at Gulfstream to break her maiden. When she finally returned to dirt at Churchill Downs, she won a two-turn allowance route in a very even, ho-hum manner.

Figarella’s Queen is the kind of runner who is likely to distribute her energy efficiently over the course of 10 furlongs. Although she still needs to prove her long-distance ability, her double-digit odds at least gives bettors value. She has a chance. 

Auspicious Babe seems like another intriguing longshot who could spice up vertical wagers. She is trained by Dallas Stewart, who is famous for hitting the board in Triple Crown races with impossible longshots such as Kentucky Derby runner-ups Golden Soul and Commanding Curve.

In three starts, Auspicious Babe’s top TimeformUS Speed Figure is 99, so she needs to make a major step forward in this spot. But at 30-1, she might be worth a shot.

Eskimo Kisses and She’s a Julie are fringe contenders who could find themselves part of the mix. However, there is just nothing exciting about either of them. 

The former finished a troubled fourth in the Kentucky Oaks, and then finished fourth again in the CCAO without a real excuse. The latter won the Iowa Oaks (G3) by five lengths against suspect competition.

Both fillies will need to step forward to contend seriously for the win.

Now to discuss the other two contenders. Piedi Bianchi makes her second start for Todd Pletcher, but there is no reason to believe she has improved under his care. She is unlikely to factor. As for Coach Rocks, she is simply too slow on numbers.

Midnight Bisou might win this race. Her value is awful, though, and Talk Veuve to Me does not appear any worse on paper. Consider the latter filly as a better option to win, along with Figarella’s Queen and Auspicious Babe as longshot plays.