What We Learned: Tactical error aided in Maximum Security's win

When Midcourt did not flash speed into the first turn of the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar, Maximum Security for all intents and purposed had won the race.

At that point, Maximum Security only took mild pace pressure from a turf horse -- Sharp Samurai -- not used to a high-level dirt race. With a comfortable lead in hand, Maximum Security put another Grade 1 on his impressive resume.

But there is an argument that jockey Victor Espinoza did not urge Midcourt enough out of the gate. Did he make a tactical error, or was Midcourt not up to contesting the lead this time after the slow start?

This is a debatable point, and it's worth a look.

Watch Midcourt on the rail. Espinoza gives a few modest pumps, and then stops. He gradually lets Maximum Security cross over to the rail with almost no urgency to run up there and reach the position first.

In fact, it almost looks like Midcourt is held going into the turn.

Maximum Security then eases into his pacesetting position through a 23.93 opening quarter, which is no problem at 1 1/4 miles for a Grade 1-quality horse in front. With nominal pressure from Sharp Samurai, he also gets the half-mile in 47.98.

As for Higher Power, Flavien Prat curiously took him outside and wide into the first turn. From that point, he continued to run wide alongside Sharp Samurai.

Midcourt took up the pocket position right behind the front trio. Why? His biggest efforts came when setting the pace, and those include wins in the Native Diver (G3) and San Pasqual Stakes (G2), as well as his strong runner-up to Maximum Security in the San Diego Handicap (G2).

On the turn, Maximum Security still took pressure from Sharp Samurai through six furlongs in 1:12.37. But Maximum Security clearly had plenty left. At the top of the stretch, jockey Abel Cedillo shook the reins and made use of the whip a few times. Like a professional, Maximum Security drew clear in mid-stretch to win by three lengths.

Sharp Samurai held second in a good effort for his return to dirt, and 2 3/4 lengths behind him in third, Midcourt outran Higher Power by a nose.

After Higher Power, 10 1/4 lengths separated him and Mirinaque in fifth. Then came another 10 3/4 lengths to Dark Vader in last. The spread-out margins indicate a fast race.

Still, it is frustrating to see Maximum Security almost handed the race. Why would trainer John Shirreffs want the pocket position for Midcourt knowing Midcourt's best races came on the lead and Maximum Security figures to win if left alone on the lead?

Perhaps Maximum Security wins in either case as a classy horse capable of adjusting to the pace. He is not one-dimensional, as shown in the San Diego Handicap. With that said, this out-of-the-gate scenario with a top Baffert speed horse gaining the lead more easily than expected is not new. Only a few weeks ago, Venetian Harbor unexpectedly let the Baffert-trained Gamine set crawling fractions in the Test Stakes (G1).

For bettors, avoiding races with heavily bet Baffert speed horses might be the answer. Some other bettors may say to just bet the Baffert horse in these cases. Why accept 2/5 on Maximum Security or 1/5 on a filly like Gamine when better races are available on the card? At that point, it is betting for the sake of winning, rather than gaining a decent return.

With all that said, Maximum Security is the best older dirt router.

Halladay steals Fourstardave Handicap

For those who play this blog’s top selections, Halladay made for a nice win return ($12.60) in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1) at Saratoga. But Got Stormy sticking around late for second and Casa Creed running third made the trifecta difficult.

As pointed out in an earlier analysis, no one in the field had the ability to contest Halladay on the lead, and no one did. Once no one contested him, he won the race.  

Halladay initially broke with the field. But with some urging from Luis Saez, he went to the front to secure the pacesetter role. He led Emmaus by at least a length.

Got Stormy took up the pocket position as Valid Point and Without Parole ran just behind them. Toward the rear, Raging Bull and Uni took their time early on and did not hurry to join the leading group.

Through fractions of 23.85 and 47.19, Halladay began to look stronger. He kept his advantage over Emmaus and Got Stormy into the turn.

At the top of the stretch, Saez went to work on Halladay with the whip. In a resurgence of form, Got Stormy never gave up though and fought in midstretch. She made a slight move forward, but Halladay did not let her go past his tail. Halladay won by 1 1/4 lengths as Got Stormy became tired in the last few steps and conceded the victory.

Got Stormy held second by another 1 1/4 lengths over Casa Creed in third. She gets credit for quieting talks of her losing a step, at least for now.  

What happened to Raging Bull and Uni?

Either they did not receive enough pace or gave poor efforts. Raging Bull barely made up enough ground to pick up fifth by a nose over stablemate Without Parole, while Uni ran across the wire a half-length behind Without Parole in seventh. With two disappointing races in a row since returning, Uni needs to prove herself in her next start.

For what it's worth, TimeformUS gave Halladay a career-high 127 speed figure. That is a great number for an improving 4-year-old colt. If there are other legitimate pacesetters in his future races, use caution before trusting him. But if he enters another paceless situation, then he is obviously capable of winning at the highest level.