Marconi, Machismo solid longshot options in Blue Grass

Rather than give just one longshot for the Grade 2, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes, I believe I've found double-digit odds horses with a legitimate chance. 

As usual, this key prep race for the 2018 Kentucky Derby will be run at 1 1/8 miles, and there is a chance of both rain and snow Saturday at Keeneland.

From a distance standpoint, Marconi holds the most experience at nine furlongs with a 3: 1-1-1 record. Considering the son of Tapit has only started four times overall, the connections certainly believe in his longer-routing potential.

Whether Marconi can run fast enough is a different question, and the answer is hampered by the fact he continually breaks awkwardly in every start. He is starting to become like the popular gelding Evening Attire from over a decade ago, who could never break well but won several longer stakes races regardless.

Ignore the slow-breaking habit for a second.

This horse won by five lengths in his second start at Aqueduct last December, then finished third in the Withers Stakes (G3) about a month and a half later.

Critics could say Marconi received a favorable setup in the Withers when a longshot tried to run with Avery Island, but he is also still learning. 

Marconi went on to run a good closing fifth in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes (G2), when the race flow favored the front-running pair of Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power. 

Note the slow half-mile fraction and the slight crowding after the first turn (a bunched-up field signifies a slow pace). 

Can Marconi get the right pace scenario in the Blue Grass? It's possible.

Sporting Chance is expected to go early from the second post, and California Night will join. If Flameaway and Machismo attend the pace from the outside posts, Marconi could receive the right setup..

Unfortunately, the presence of trainer Todd Pletcher and world-class jockey Ryan Moore might bring down the value.

For a second option, though, Machismo is not a bad one. As with Marconi, he closed into a slow pace in the Fountain of Youth. Unlike Marconi, the race acted as his two-turn route debut, and he did well considering the race did not set up for his position. 

Because Machismo drew Post 13 here, jockey Jacob Radosevich will likely attempt to clear the field in order not to lose ground on the first turn. Expect more aggressive tactics than what were shown at Gulfstream, where he unexpectedly came from the back.

Also, cross out the first two starts at Saratoga last summer. He lost by 13 lengths to Sporting Chance and by a little more than two lengths in a turf race. His last three starts after the layoff -- and since a barn change -- came on dirt at Gulfstream and show good improvement.

Furthermore, Machismo’s connections are unlikely to bring his odds down. Keep in mind he started with Pletcher. The only real drawback is the outside post position, which good speed can overcome.

Owner Ron Paolucci tweeted that Machismo is “60/40” to run on Saturday with the April 14 Arkansas Derby also an option.

The last longshot possibility in this write-up is Zing Zang, who will go off at higher odds than Marconi and Machismo.

Choosing Zing Zang requires a bit more imagination. The “other” son of Tapit did get blocked momentarily in the lane when moving inside in the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn. For better or worse, Corey Lanerie loves to shoot through the rail, and it did not work out that time.

Two starts ago, Zing Zang actually needed the rail as the entire Southwest Stakes (G3) card was plagued by an inside bias. While eventual winner My Boy Jack zipped through the inside, Zing Zang made a mild move outside and failed to threaten.

Maybe this is a slow horse, but he gets a longer distance which should help. Plus, Shaun Bridgmohan takes over as the rider once again. 

As for the favorite, Good Magic, he deserves consideration for the same reason as Marconi and Machismo. He did not get a fair pace in the Fountain Of Youth.

Then again, he had a better chance to catch the leaders from third, while the latter two horses needed come from behind. Good Magic never made up any real ground.

Chad Brown’s runner showed good talent in the past, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and running a fine second in the Champagne Stakes (G1).

While he is expected to bounce back in this spot, there is little value.

Sporting Chance will not offer a ton of value either, as he failed to show much in the Rebel. Supporters will argue a wide trip hampered him, but he could reveal himself to be a one-turn horse.

The same label can be applied towards Kanthaka, whose move on the far turn in the San Felipe (G2) looked like a rubber band that bent forward too soon. For those who want to forgive the effort, he did stumble at the start. But he never lost his expected position either. 

Out of the remaining contenders, Free Drop Billy looks like a possible winner if he runs back to his Holy Bull Stakes (G2) effort.

Tiz Mischief is probably too slow, and Flameaway is hard to trust after seeing Catholic Boy’s disappointing run in the Florida Derby (G1) -- although Catholic Boy did bleed.

Of the three longshots initially discussed, Marconi is the best option because of the post position and experience at this distance. However, keep an eye on his odds. There is a small chance the regally-bred colt will become severely overbet.

If so, then side with Machismo or Zing Zang, while keeping in mind Good Magic is in all likelihood the best horse.