Maiden winner Nash is 1 to fear on Kentucky Derby trail

When the Brad Cox-trained Nash broke his maiden in his second career start Sunday at Churchill Downs, he gave the kind of performance that indicates he will become a force in this division sooner rather than later.

There are many positive notes about Nash’s win, including the margin, final time, speed figures and even his running style. Plus, Nash has the right pedigree to run longer with route influences on both sides of the family.

Nash won by 10 1/4 lengths. Anytime a 2-year-old breaks his maiden by that margin at a major racetrack, he gets thrown into the Derby discussion for good reason. In most cases, big margins hint at a fast time and figure.

In addition to Nash's margin over the runner-up finisher Justifreak, Nash’s margin over Be You was also another big clue at a fast time and speed figure. Be You could run only fifth by 14 1/2 lengths in Nash’s maiden race, which is significant because he ran fourth in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at Saratoga and third in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita.

Be You had been running decently against top 2-year-old runners, but Nash crushed him. 

Nash completed the 1 1/16-mile race in a snappy 1:43.15.

Granted, Nash led the field uncontested throughout the race. But he did post early fractions of 23.83 and 47.93 seconds, which fall on the moderate side. For those two fractions, TimeformUS gave pace figures of 122 and 124.

Later on the card, Kitty Hawk led a maiden race with similar conditions including the same distance through 24.12 and 48.89 opening fractions. Kitty Hawk held on by one length over Rapoport in a time of 1:45.44.

Nash’s final time beat Kitty Hawk’s time by more than two seconds.

With the fast time in mind, it is no surprise Nash was given a 95 Beyer Speed Figure by Daily Racing Form and 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his maiden win. The two numbers fall within two points of one another when accounting for the approximately 20-point difference between Beyers and TimeformUS.

For a 2-year-old colt who just broke his maiden, those are high figures.

As Nash starts to compete in graded-stakes races, his speed will prove an asset more often than not. Most closers become compromised by the pace or traffic, especially in the Kentucky Derby. But Nash might need to prove that he can sit off other horses in cases where the pace runs fast. 

Nash should improve as he stretches out to longer routes, especially considering the route names seen on both sides of his family.

Most racing followers already know Medaglia d’Oro as a reliable route sire. After his own successful route career, Medaglia d’Oro has been the sire of numerous route stars such as Songbird, Rachel Alexandra and more. His lifetime top performer in terms of earnings is Golden Sixty, a Hong Kong-based runner who has won at as far as 10 furlongs.

Nash’s dam Sara Louise competed as both a sprinter and miler in her limited career and won races such as the Pocahontas Stakes (G3) in 2008, followed by the Victory Ride Stakes (G3) and Top Flight Handicap (G2) in 2009.

As a broodmare, Sara Louise has produced one notable router in the active Spa City, who has one win at 1 3/16 miles from the latter part of his 3-year-old season in a Keeneland allowance race.

Similar to Medaglia d’Oro, Sara Louise’s sire Malibu Moon has been the sire of numerous route stars, such as the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb.

With those points in mind about Nash’s fast maiden win and overall pedigree, this type of runner is supposed to thrive on the Derby trail. Wherever trainer Brad Cox decides to start him next, he is one to fear.