Preakness 2023: Mage must overcome pace scenario

Almost two weeks ago, Mage won the Kentucky Derby to capture the first leg of the Triple Crown at 15-1. His first graded stakes win came partially because of crazy fractions ahead of him fueled by a large number of speed horses and a pace collapse afterward.

But in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on Saturday, the circumstances feel different.

In the Kentucky Derby, a number of horses were up front running at a crazy pace, including the pacesetter Verifying, Kingsbarns, Reincarnate, Two Phil’s and Confidence Game. Verifying put up fractions of 22.35 seconds, 45.73 and 1:10.11. Even Hit Show in sixth was traveling at a demanding pace for the half-mile fraction while stalking the leaders from 3 1/2 lengths behind.

Two Phil’s and Hit Show did survive the pace scenario. In the case of Two Phil’s, he fought on in the stretch and ended up second by one length to the winner Mage. As for Hit Show, he ran on evenly late to finish a good fifth.

But the other horses who were part of the early pace group folded.

After the grueling early fractions, Verifying threw in the towel and finished 16th by 54 3/4 lengths. Kingsbarns lasted longer and finished 14th, 25 1/4 lengths behind Mage. Reincarnate defeated Kingsbarns for 13th by 3/4 of a length. Confidence Game fared the best of the top six horses at the half-mile point with a 10th-place finish while losing by only 14 1/2 lengths.

Mage under Javier Castellano initially lagged in 16th through the half-mile point before working his way forward, which means he benefited from the pace collapse as a closer. On the far turn, Mage found an open path to the outside and Castellano guided him there. He then started to pass horses and establish himself as a threat for the lead. 

In the stretch, Mage caught Two Phil’s to pull off the upset by one length.

The point is that the sheer numbers of horses going faster than expected helped Mage. Once Mage went outside for a clear shot, he could pass a lot of those tired horses quickly because he reserved his energy 13 lengths behind. As strange as this sounds, Mage’s usual slow start gave him an advantage.

But in this Preakness, the circumstances are not close to the same. The only three possible horses up front are National Treasure, Coffeewithchris and First Mission. On paper, two of them are natural stalkers and the other is overmatched.

As I wrote Tuesday, the usual stalker National Treasure might return to his maiden tactics and liven up the pace with a send job from the inside draw. But it is unlikely he will run at a suicidal pace.

Why would Coffeewithchris run with National Treasure knowing a head-to-head speed duel means bad news for Coffeewithchris? Even if Coffeewithchris tries a challenge, it probably will feel like nothing to National Treasure because he’s in a different class.  

First Mission does not seem likely to go at a blazing pace. In winning the Lexington (G3), he started the race 2 1/2 lengths behind the leader through a slow pace. Two starts ago in his maiden win at Fair Grounds, he began three lengths behind. He naturally falls into stalking positions. 

Even if jockey Luis Saez asks First Mission to go hard, it feels like that means First Mission would apply only moderate pressure to whoever leads. In any case, National Treasure can revert to a stalking position if the pace heats up too quickly with Coffeewithchris or First Mission pressing him.   

Either National Treasure or First Mission could end up slipping away before Mage arrives with his move. The pace situation feels in sharp contrast to the Kentucky Derby, where most of the horses were coming back to Mage, allowing him take a clear outside shot at a weakened Two Phil’s in the stretch.

If Mage breaks slowly again and National Treasure or Coffeewithchris end up setting fractions of 24 and 48 and change, Mage’s chances could end.

With that said, Mage still has the most ability on paper and the highest class as the runner-up in the Florida Derby (G1) and winner of the Kentucky Derby. Mage’s natural talent made up for his lack of experience last time at Churchill Downs in an 18-horse field. 

But given Mage’s lowered betting value and a different pace scenario, it might feel worth it to look elsewhere or use Mage only defensively in multi-race wagers. Mage might not receive the right pace scenario this time, and that one factor could stop him from winning.