Lost Ark is a live long shot in Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Assuming he runs, Lost Ark will bring a notable pedigree and talent into the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 4 at Keeneland. But he will probably start as a long shot because of his sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1).   

Before dismissing Lost Ark though, consider his troubled trip in the Breeders’ Futurity. Lost Ark was shut off at three critical points in the race, before rallying belatedly for a mild sixth-place finish amid traffic.  

Below is a replay of the Breeders’ Futurity, where Lost Ark began from Post 10 under jockey Flavien Prat. He started as the public third choice at 6-1.

Before the first turn, Lost Ark is already in trouble when he gets squeezed in between Funtastic Again and Red Route One. The unlucky incident causes Lost Ark to fall back to second to last right before they round the first turn.

At this point, Lost Ark’s chances to win do not seem great in his deep closer position. He needs to navigate through a 14-horse field of 2-year-olds.

Lost Ark does appear on screen a little bit after the half-mile fraction. Although Lost Ark still has plenty of ground to cover from third to last, he noticeably progresses with a move on the inside. Unfortunately, Lost Ark runs into traffic trying to move inside of Instant Coffee, and that stops Lost Ark's momentum once again.

As Lost Ark tries to regather himself approaching the far turn, a wall of horses falls toward him while Red Route One outmaneuvers him to the outside when he tries to avoid the wall. Again, Lost Ark is stopped, and at a critical point in the race where he needs to rally. Instead, Lost Ark is found with little room inside of Red Route One.

The race is lost for Lost Ark. But at the top of the stretch, watch as how Flavien Prat keeps working on the colt and hits him a couple of times right-handed (around 1:37 in the replay). Lost Ark responds well to the whip and manages to remain in the video for a couple of moments longer with his midstretch move before the camera focuses on the more exciting duel between Forte and Loggins up front.

Lost Ark eventually finishes sixth while losing by 10 lengths with a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This colt is capable of more though.

How many lengths did the trouble cost Lost Ark? It is almost impossible to measure. But for an inexperienced 2-year-old, getting stopped multiple times throughout a race can get discouraging fast. Yet, he kept trying to move in the stretch when Prat opted to use the right-handed stick on him.

Pedigree-wise, Lost Ark is related to an active successful runner as a half-brother to the three-time Grade 1 winner and Breeders’ Cup Distaff favorite Nest. Trainer Todd Pletcher conditions both siblings, which gives Lost Ark the type of trainer who knows how to deal with this family and bring out his potential.

Expect a good effort from Lost Ark in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Yes, with some luck from a trip standpoint and pace up front, he can upset the field. But even if Lost Ark does not win, it would come as a surprise if he did not make some kind of move to find himself in the mix for an underneath slot. 

Not every 2-year-old develops in time for the Breeders’ Cup though. If Lost Ark does not show up with a good effort, Pletcher still has a shot at developing this colt for the Derby trail. After all, Nest did improve with distance. Perhaps Lost Ark will show his best work at nine furlongs or longer.