Lone Sailor can light up the board in Louisiana Derby
{{monthName}} {{day}}, {{year}} {{hour12}}:{{minuteTwoDigit}}{{dayPeriod}}
Photo:
Coady Photography
Continuing
the road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby, Fair Grounds hosts the Grade 2, $1 million
Louisiana Derby on Saturday. Despite the large amount of money, this race feels a little light on headlining stars.
Nevertheless, for bettors it does feature at least one solid closer with value.
Value can be hard to pinpoint days in advance. Today’s racing public is smarter and picks up on hot angles with a multitude of opinions readily available on social media.
However, if G M B Racing’s Lone Sailor stays around his morning line odds of 20-1, he will be a good selection for bettors.
First of all, forgive the local Feb. 19 runner-up finish in an optional claimer against weaker opponents. Pacesetter Dark Templar set sluggish opening fractions of 24.39 and 48.85, meaning he locked down the race by the half-mile point. The first three horses at that point also ended up 1-3-4.
Lone Sailor, who started off in seventh, made the only closing run to pick up second. Taking the pace and race flow into consideration, he ran the best.
As for Lone Sailor’s LeComte Stakes (G3) flop, he simply did not react well to racing in blinkers and moved too early (blinkers promote more speed, aggressive tactics). With more conservative tactics, this is a better horse.
Cross out the LeComte, and then what's left?
Lone Sailor’s late-closing effort for fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs looks fine. Runners from that race such as Enticed, Promises Fulfilled and Bravazo have gone on to win major Derby preps.
Also at Churchill, Lone Sailor ran a solid second in the Street Sense Stakes.
At Keeneland, he made a mild bid and finished a good third to Free Drop Billy and Bravazo in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). This makes him Grade 1-placed.
If Lone Sailor can get enough pace on Saturday, he should hit the board, or even win. It would certainly create the “feel-good” story of the week.
Assuming the pace materializes, the setup will come from Bravazo, Noble Indy, Retirement Fund, Hyndford, Snapper Sinclair and Dark Templar.
Bravazo is a solid horse who is capable of withstanding hot fractions and sticking around in top races. The son of Awesome Again is reunited with Gary Stevens. However, when Bravazo won the Risen Star (G2), many pointed out that he and Snapper Sinclair ran 1-2 the entire way around.
This merry-go-round nature of the Risen Star brings up the possibility of a strange bias, meaning third-place finisher Noble Indy from the Todd Pletcher barn must be considered, too. He is lightly raced and talented.
The son of Take Charge Indy will probably show more early foot with the addition of blinkers, although he will want to settle down slightly rather than tangle with the other speed. But, his talent might overcome the pace.
Retirement Fund and Dark Templar are outclassed in this spot.
Hyndford ran second to the hyped Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Magnum Moon after setting the pace at Tampa Bay Downs. Why did the connections place him in a maiden claiming race just two starts ago though? While he might do enough to hang around, a win seems unlikely.
Snapper Sinclair ran well twice in a row following his Breeders’ Cup flop, almost holding off Bravazo in the Risen Star and finishing a good third in the LeComte after contesting the lead. Unless his pedigree doubters are correct, a hot pace will probably not stop him from putting up a fight, so place him in the same category as Noble Indy and Bravazo as win contenders.
Now to discuss the expected favorite My Boy Jack, who is also a closer.
The Keith Desormeaux-trained colt won the Southwest Stakes (G2) by a little more than four lengths in a field that included Combatant, Sporting Chance and Mourinho. A lot of people will see him as the class of the field.
There are two main drawbacks to My Boy Jack.
For one, his dam side pedigree is geared toward mud. Study the second dam Gold N Delicious, who captured the 1997 Fleur de Lis (G2) over a sloppy track. She won five starts, and three of them came on a wet surface.
My Boy Jack won over mud at Oaklawn Park, but failed to show the same kick in the Sham (G3) at Santa Anita on fast dirt. Shades of Exaggerator.
Also, the “golden rail” at Oaklawn during the Southwest card is widely known. Think about this: If My Boy Jack drew an outside post, would the same result happen?
The point is, there is no proof My Boy Jack owns the best closing kick on a normal dirt surface without a biased rail. If that is true, then swallowing a low price on him is a higher risk, even if he ends up winning. It is wiser to give priority to proven fast dirt runners, while acknowledging My Boy Jack can win.
Bravazo and Snapper Sinclair are part of the discussion, although it is tough to accept lower odds after they were double-digit odds last time.
Therefore, Noble Indy earns the top choice designation if he can get a fair racetrack. Given he lost to Bravazo and finished behind Snapper Sinclair, hopefully the public will lay off him slightly. Then again, value is hard to find in horses from Todd Pletcher's barn.
Lone Sailor, while not as probable to win as those four, will be a good play at 20-1 on the morning line. For those comfortable enough with a backwheel key, he can work well in that ticket structure, too.
Good closers will only need to pick off tired horses to hit the board in this Louisiana Derby.
Value can be hard to pinpoint days in advance. Today’s racing public is smarter and picks up on hot angles with a multitude of opinions readily available on social media.
However, if G M B Racing’s Lone Sailor stays around his morning line odds of 20-1, he will be a good selection for bettors.
First of all, forgive the local Feb. 19 runner-up finish in an optional claimer against weaker opponents. Pacesetter Dark Templar set sluggish opening fractions of 24.39 and 48.85, meaning he locked down the race by the half-mile point. The first three horses at that point also ended up 1-3-4.
Lone Sailor, who started off in seventh, made the only closing run to pick up second. Taking the pace and race flow into consideration, he ran the best.
As for Lone Sailor’s LeComte Stakes (G3) flop, he simply did not react well to racing in blinkers and moved too early (blinkers promote more speed, aggressive tactics). With more conservative tactics, this is a better horse.
Cross out the LeComte, and then what's left?
Lone Sailor’s late-closing effort for fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs looks fine. Runners from that race such as Enticed, Promises Fulfilled and Bravazo have gone on to win major Derby preps.
Also at Churchill, Lone Sailor ran a solid second in the Street Sense Stakes.
At Keeneland, he made a mild bid and finished a good third to Free Drop Billy and Bravazo in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). This makes him Grade 1-placed.
If Lone Sailor can get enough pace on Saturday, he should hit the board, or even win. It would certainly create the “feel-good” story of the week.
Assuming the pace materializes, the setup will come from Bravazo, Noble Indy, Retirement Fund, Hyndford, Snapper Sinclair and Dark Templar.
Bravazo is a solid horse who is capable of withstanding hot fractions and sticking around in top races. The son of Awesome Again is reunited with Gary Stevens. However, when Bravazo won the Risen Star (G2), many pointed out that he and Snapper Sinclair ran 1-2 the entire way around.
This merry-go-round nature of the Risen Star brings up the possibility of a strange bias, meaning third-place finisher Noble Indy from the Todd Pletcher barn must be considered, too. He is lightly raced and talented.
The son of Take Charge Indy will probably show more early foot with the addition of blinkers, although he will want to settle down slightly rather than tangle with the other speed. But, his talent might overcome the pace.
Retirement Fund and Dark Templar are outclassed in this spot.
Hyndford ran second to the hyped Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Magnum Moon after setting the pace at Tampa Bay Downs. Why did the connections place him in a maiden claiming race just two starts ago though? While he might do enough to hang around, a win seems unlikely.
Snapper Sinclair ran well twice in a row following his Breeders’ Cup flop, almost holding off Bravazo in the Risen Star and finishing a good third in the LeComte after contesting the lead. Unless his pedigree doubters are correct, a hot pace will probably not stop him from putting up a fight, so place him in the same category as Noble Indy and Bravazo as win contenders.
Now to discuss the expected favorite My Boy Jack, who is also a closer.
The Keith Desormeaux-trained colt won the Southwest Stakes (G2) by a little more than four lengths in a field that included Combatant, Sporting Chance and Mourinho. A lot of people will see him as the class of the field.
There are two main drawbacks to My Boy Jack.
For one, his dam side pedigree is geared toward mud. Study the second dam Gold N Delicious, who captured the 1997 Fleur de Lis (G2) over a sloppy track. She won five starts, and three of them came on a wet surface.
My Boy Jack won over mud at Oaklawn Park, but failed to show the same kick in the Sham (G3) at Santa Anita on fast dirt. Shades of Exaggerator.
Also, the “golden rail” at Oaklawn during the Southwest card is widely known. Think about this: If My Boy Jack drew an outside post, would the same result happen?
The point is, there is no proof My Boy Jack owns the best closing kick on a normal dirt surface without a biased rail. If that is true, then swallowing a low price on him is a higher risk, even if he ends up winning. It is wiser to give priority to proven fast dirt runners, while acknowledging My Boy Jack can win.
Bravazo and Snapper Sinclair are part of the discussion, although it is tough to accept lower odds after they were double-digit odds last time.
Therefore, Noble Indy earns the top choice designation if he can get a fair racetrack. Given he lost to Bravazo and finished behind Snapper Sinclair, hopefully the public will lay off him slightly. Then again, value is hard to find in horses from Todd Pletcher's barn.
Lone Sailor, while not as probable to win as those four, will be a good play at 20-1 on the morning line. For those comfortable enough with a backwheel key, he can work well in that ticket structure, too.
Good closers will only need to pick off tired horses to hit the board in this Louisiana Derby.
Read More
I'm dubious that we'll actually get the 20-1 price the morning line suggests on Quatrocento in the Grade...
The one-mile Dwyer Stakes for 3-year-olds scraped together a small field of six for its 49th renewal. Grade...
Caitlinhergrtness , Canada's champion 3-year-old filly of 2024, looks to tally another graded-stakes win Saturday in the Grade...
Godolphin’s Encino has proven his versatility with victories on dirt, turf and all-weather surfaces and will look to add...
Yaupon continues his commanding performance in the 2025 freshman sire standings, recording five winners last week to extend...