Moderately-fast Kentucky Derby 2018 pace scenario looming

Before the “points-era” Kentucky Derby began in 2013, graded stakes-winning sprinters could enter the race and cause trouble for legitimate routers who showed speed. Because of the consistently difficult pace scenario, a couple of talented horses lost their chance in the Derby, and possibly the Triple Crown as well.

Under the points system, however, times are different. The field is no longer determined by an earnings list, and sprint races such as the Swale Stakes (G3) and San Vicente Stakes (G2) do not offer points.

Subsequently, the Derby is void of the usual insanity. Consider the pace collapse in 2013 an anomaly, as the race has been won by tactical speed types such as California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist and Always Dreaming since then. A close-range stalking or pressing trip works well.

With those statements in mind, here is a preview and analysis of the TimeformUS Pace Projector for 2018 Kentucky Derby. As of this week, TimeformUS still marks the race in red, but it does not necessarily mean a closer will win. The fast pace label only means the pace will be fast.

Here is an explanation.

To start off, the Pace Projector is not perfect. It is based on a computer algorithm, making it impossible to measure changes in human strategy.   

For example, the early preview puts Justify on the lead and Promises Fulfilled close to him. But the given scenario does not make logical sense, as trainer Dale Romans made clear after Promises Fulfilled fell victim to a vicious duel in the Florida Derby, “You live by the sword, you die by the sword.” Expect the jockey to send him to the lead again.

As for Justify, it is wrong to assume he needs the lead even though he enjoyed one in the Santa Anita Derby. Only two starts ago, he kindly settled wide while the pacesetter enjoyed a few lengths of separation.

Although skeptics worry Justify will burn himself up front, there is not enough proof he needs the lead to win. Move him to second or third in the pace analysis, depending on whether anyone else flanks Promises Fulfilled. 

Enticed and Magnum Moon are next on the chart.

The former chased Old Time Revival through swift fractions in the Wood Memorial Stakes, and he is probably in the right spot as a horse used to a fast pace.

The latter's last-race pace figures appear the opposite of Enticed.  Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon held an uncontested lead through slow fractions at Oaklawn, but the Pace Projector placed him third anyway because he is normally positioned up front. But it is unclear whether a faster pace will mean Magnum Moon settles farther back, or if he still follows the projection.

Behind them on Pace Projector are Bolt d’Oro, Flameaway and Good Magic.

Out of those three, Flameaway is most likely to secure a more front-running position. The stalking tactics seen in the Tampa Bay Derby can be blamed on a poor start. He set the pace in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Good Magic never directly presses the leader, so starting the race around sixth is logical. Bolt d’Oro should find himself near Good Magic, as he does not possess enough speed to sit near Promises Fulfilled, but he offers enough to stay in the mix. If he breaks slowly though, then he might get shuffled back into a closer position.    

After those three runners, the chart shows Mendelssohn and Noble Indy.

Mendelssohn arrives with some mystery, but his speed is probably not the crazy kind. Pace Projector believes he will settle in midpack, despite leading the entire way in the UAE Derby overseas. World-class jockey Ryan Moore used the golden rail to his advantage that day, so do not believe he absolutely needs to set the pace or press the leaders. 

For this race, expect Mendelssohn to follow the Pace Projector and come from no closer than fourth, and no farther back than 10th. He can relax. 

On the other hand, Noble Indy pressed a fast pace with blinkers on in the Louisiana Derby and could join Flameaway up front. However, the connections of both Noble Indy and Flameaway both know the consequences of hooking up with Promises Fulfilled. 

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is certainly not afraid of a fast pace, and he will start Bravazo, who is far down the Pace Projector. But this horse chased a fast pace in the Louisiana Derby after winning the Risen Star Stakes (G2) on the front end. He should find himself mid-pack or higher.  

Another possible tactical speed horse not mentioned is Solomini, an awkward Curlin colt who consistently fails to switch leads in the stretch. Trainer Bob Baffert recently worked him three furlongs in a bullet 35.20. Besides the fast time, this is notable because his last three-furlong workout came on July 4 last year. Is he going to try more aggressive tactics?

Yet, Solomini is not exactly the kind of horse to pull a Strike Power on Promises Fulfilled, either. As with Enticed, his highest early position is in third or fourth, but it would not be surprising to see Solomini shuffled back either.

To recap, there is one confirmed pacesetter. One.

Noble Indy or Flameaway might go ahead with the dirty work and challenge Promises Fulfilled from the gate, but neither horse is a guarantee to send.

Justify could defy this analysis and look Promises Fulfilled in the eye. But if he does end up that close, then maybe the pace will not be too fast.

The initial feeling is that a moderately fast pace is likely in this Derby.

Can a good longshot closer fill in the vertical exotics? Of course. There are plenty to choose from as well. Audible immediately pops up as a top-class closer who is reliable to put in a good run late. Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack can make noise. Even Combatant might clunk in for a piece.

Besides Audible, all of them just look too similar to one another with TimeformUS Speed Figures in the 115-120 range. Consider the ones who offer more value.

For what it is worth, the Pace Projector places Combatant and My Boy Jack at the very back of the field. Lone Sailor is a little closer in the second-to-last flight, along with Florida Derby runner-up Hofburg and winner Audible.

The connections of those runners will hope a few speed horses get brave and attempt a multi-horse speed duel. Even with a fast pace, navigating through the 20-horse field will be difficult for most closers.  

Justify can avoid the madness by simply outrunning most of the field early, while not getting tangled if Promises Fulfilled becomes too aggressive.

A couple of readers will misunderstand this analysis as predicting the pace will be outright slow. That is not the case. Rather, the argument here is that the Derby pace will be slower than the public expects. 

All Derby pace scenarios are fast.

The points system made the race a little slower, but running in 46 or 47 and change for the half mile in a 10-furlong race is fast. Only a full collapse is questionable. Another point of this article is to teach others not to blindly follow the Pace Projector. Use it for help, while cross-examining the order.  

Promises Fulfilled is not going to win setting the pace, but one of the horses in the first third of the field should get it done and continue the trend started in 2014. It is pointless to pick a longshot on top if the situation is not right. While there is still a small chance of a pace collapse, for better or worse the points system is here, and bettors must adapt.