Justify vs. Magnum Moon: Debating Arkansas Derby rivals
Unbeaten at 3, but un-raced at 2, Justify and Magnum Moon are scheduled to meet in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on April 14 at Oaklawn Park.
So, let's get the debate started: Which horse offers more talent and potential heading into his final prep race?
Justify stole headlines in recent months at Santa Anita Park, where he handled a maiden race and optional claimer with ease. With Bob Baffert as the trainer, the hype became stronger and brought comparisons to the lightly-raced Bodemeister, the Kentucky Derby's post time favorite in 2012.
Magnum Moon captured the Rebel Stakes (G2) last weekend in his third start. Although he worked a little harder than Justify did, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt defeated some nice horses, including the Baffert-trained Solomini.
TimeformUS awarded a final speed figure of 121, comparable to Justify’s 125 for the Santa Anita allowance win. However, speed figures are not supposed to take wide trips or “ease of win” into account. Justify went both wide on the first turn and traveled without encouragement approaching the wire. It looked like he never even tried.
“He was gearing way down,” jockey Mike Smith told reporters.
Furthermore, Magnum Moon “only” earned a 111 for the Tampa Bay win.
In other words, the answer to the first question is clear. Justify's talent and potential is limitless. This colt looks like he will dominate the Arkansas Derby no matter who enters, and could very well develop into a superstar going forward.
In fact, Justify has a shot at becoming the next Triple Crown winner, if he can break the Derby's "curse of Apollo. In case you haven't heard, no horse since 1882 has won the Derby without racing as a juvenile. When people think of what horse in the 2018 3-year-old crop has a shot at standing next to legends like Seattle Slew, Affirmed or even American Pharoah, there is only one runner with that kind of potential – Justify.
His inexperience is offset by good tactical speed that can keep him out of trouble.
In contrast, Magnum Moon gives the impression of another solid Grade 1-level Pletcher runner. While he is a top horse in the division, he does not give off that special vibe.
Magnum Moon can jump forward in the Arkansas Derby and prove the above opinion wrong, but Justify is eligible to improve as well. The latter is surely not done developing yet, either.
As for a pedigree comparison, most racing fans are already familiar with Magnum Moon’s sire, Malibu Moon, who sired 2013 Kentucky Derby champion Orb, as well as countless other top horses. Malibu Moon is a son of A.P. Indy, who is known as an excellent route influence on dirt. But there are exceptions to every pedigree rule.
Magnum Moon’s bottom side is OK for routing with Unbridled’s Song as a damsire.
It should be noted though that second dam Win McCool won three times overall, and all three wins came at sprint distances. In addition, third dam Win Crafty Lady took a graded stakes race at six furlongs, which possibly makes her a sprint influence too.
Justify’s pedigree underneath is stronger in terms of route potential. His dam, Stage Magic, competed in dirt routes for most of her career. Stage Magic’s sire Ghostzapper and damsire Pulpit are also well-known route influences, so it is no wonder Stage Magic's three wins came at a mile or longer, which is the opposite of Win McCool.
Nitpickers might find some concern with Scat Daddy as a longer-distance sire. But regardless, Justify should handle the added distance at Oaklawn. If he can win a two-turn mile so effortlessly, then going nine furlongs should not pose a huge problem.
Smith is optimistic, anyway.
“The distance didn’t seem to bother him," the Hall of Famer said after Justify's last race. "I know that was just a mile, but he could have galloped out another quarter of a mile if he had to.”
To add one last point, when Baffert loves a potential Derby horse, he points him toward Oaklawn Park for the final prep. He did this with American Pharoah in 2015 and Bodemeister in 2012. Bodemeister won the Arkansas Derby in a dominant fashion, but did not win at Churchill Downs. Despite the loss, he ran a very good second to I'll Have Another after contesting a hard pace with sprinter Trinniberg.
If Justify does indeed enter the same race, then it appears over for the rest of the field including Magnum Moon, Sporting Chance and any other horse who decides to compete.
With a reasonable trip, he should win and head into the Kentucky Derby a favorite, sparking discussion of whether he can step onto a greater level -- and finally end that pesky curse of Apollo.