Justify's inside Belmont 2018 draw gives room for concern

Justify drew the rail for his Triple Crown attempt on Saturday in the 2018 Belmont Stakes, leaving some room for concern. Said trainer Bob Baffert: “We have it. We can’t change it.”

Why would Baffert prefer the outside?

From a tactical standpoint, drawing the middle or outside posts in a 1 1/2-mile race provides more options. As long as the post is not too wide, the jockey can wait and see how the pace unfolds before deciding on a comfortable position.

In the Kentucky Derby, Justify drew outside the main speed, Promises Fulfilled, and was able to sit off his flank for the first half of the race. Typically, a speed horse on the inside like Promises Fulfilled is stressed out from the rail position when another horse is pressing him because there is little breathing room. On the other hand, Justify enjoyed empty space to his right side.

Two weeks later in the Preakness, Good Magic took the role of the inside speed horse, while Justify sat to Good Magic’s right and kept the pressure on. As in the Derby, Justify enjoyed open space to his right, making it a less stressful affair.

To be fair, though, it looked like the duo raced a few paths off the rail. Good Magic simply could not last after sparring with Justify.

If Justify goes to the lead in the Belmont, he will need to deal with pressure from Noble Indy in Post 9. Noble Indy’s jockey, Javier Castellano, will get the luxury of seeing how the start unfolds before making a decision on whether to aggressively go to the front.

This time, Noble Indy will have that empty space to his right, as closer Blended Citizen breaks from Post 10. However, this writer is betting Noble Indy in the Belmont. So maybe it is easier to see the good things in horses taking money from one’s own wallet.

If Mike Smith decides not to gun Justify early, then the Triple Crown hopeful opens himself to getting boxed in. It is possible Bravazo flanks him early as Noble Indy crosses over, leaving Justify with a horse to his front and outside.

The “pocket” position is actually not the worst spot in most cases, as it does afford the opportunity to save ground. But what if Justify is still stuck in the box on the far turn? What if Noble Indy enjoys the clear sailing and keeps going, while Bravazo or another horse blocks Justify from switching out? That is one danger.

The rail has produced 23 winners in the Belmont, but Justify is a targeted horse in this race. Other jockeys know their chance to win lies in a bad trip for Justify.

California Chrome did not enjoy the rail spot on his way to finishing fourth in his 2014 Triple Crown bid. He was a strange horse in that he loved to race three or four wide in his most successful races. 

Big Brown started from the rail in his 2008 Triple Crown bid. He got rank on the first turn when Kent Desormeaux tried to force his way to the outside. As the race went on, it looked obvious Big Brown was missing something as he raced wide chasing eventual winner Da’ Tara. He faded on the far turn and eased.

Of course, the 23 Belmont rail winners statistic will be touted by people want Justify to win. Be especially careful with those who are overly enthusiastic about Justify taking the Triple Crown, as there is always bias on both sides in handicapping.

Justify can still win, but there is some room for pause. Maybe his stablemate Restoring Hope can run a screen for him in the early stages of the race as Zayat Stable's Mr. Z did for American Pharoah before the first turn of the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

If Justify is to become a legendary horse in the same league as Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed or even American Pharoah, he will need to handle any adversity that comes his way whether or not a blocker is there. The Triple Crown remains elusive for a reason.