Analysis: Early tactics benefited Justify in Belmont 2018 win

As most fans hoped, Justify won the 2018 Belmont Stakes with Mike Smith aboard, and will go down in history as a Triple Crown champion.

As in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the colt won by showing his incredible speed early. The difference is, this time Justify needed to show his speed from the rail. But the post position did not matter, as he seemed in control from start to finish.

It should be noted Justify did receive a little help from stablemate Restoring Hope at the start, although it is questionable whether the assist mattered.

When the gates opened, it looked like Restoring Hope might almost challenge Justify for the lead. He broke well and slightly ahead of Noble Indy, who was farther outside. On the first turn though, however, Restoring Hope moved out paths and suddenly changed tactics. This strange act discouraged Noble Indy and possibly other horses in the initial stages. 

"He has natural speed," trainer Bob Baffert said of Restoring Hope, who he trains along with Justify, "and his only chance was to be up near the lead in the first wave because he's like a one-dimensional horse. But he was getting a little -- they were getting a little rank -- I think they were going pretty fast. But he's not a horse to come off the -- take back. All his races were decent where he had to be up close. We were just giving him a chance."

Gronkowski, a longshot who has trained most of his career in Europe, settled last and several lengths back of the second-to-last horse Free Drop Billy. He looked out of range. However, his surprising run from behind was coming soon.

At the half-mile point, the pace slowed down to a moderate 48.11 seconds. Justify was in a good position up front, and the final result looked inevitable. Restoring Hope still tracked in second, with Bravazo boxed and Noble Indy outside. Vino Rosso followed, with Tenfold on the rail and Blended Citizen outside of them.

Tenfold made no impact on this race after his improved Preakness run. Blended Citizen caved, too, without any visible excuse. Both horses turned in head-scratching performances and hopefully will return to form in summer races.  

On the far turn, Justify continued on with the lead. Vino Rosso ranged up on the outside and began to threaten. Gronkowski was rolling from behind and eating up ground in an almost Mine That Bird-like fashion.

But the moderate half helped Justify, as he continued to go on and win. He has become immortal in the record books as a Triple Crown champion.

Vino Rosso was repelled and faded all the way back to fourth, while Gronkowski could come no closer than about a length or two at the wire.

Considering Gronkowski’s initial position and that the long 1 ½-mile Belmont distance tends to flatten out the run of some closers, Gronkowski ran exceptionally well. He is no longer a horse that anyone will scoff at in whatever race he enters, whether on dirt or turf. New trainer Chad Brown has options with this colt.

Vino Rosso ran his race, but it simply was not good enough. He had help in the Wood Memorial (G1) when the pace set up for him. Then he ran evenly in the Kentucky Derby, so his form did not offer any huge clues on whether he could defeat Justify. Most people bet him because of his breeding and his trainer, Todd Pletcher.

Hofburg picked it up late for third, although never at any point did he appear to threaten Justify. He hung outside on the far turn and spun his wheels.

Way in the back, Restoring Hope and Noble Indy could be seen running together and both practically eased their way to the finish line. While Justify is a deserving Triple Crown champion, this image did not look so great considering the connections.

Both horses should return and make some noise if they come out of the race okay.

Free Drop Billy, the race's other contender, did not offer much. Gronkowski passed him on the turn like was standing still, and he only made a mild run to catch up with the horses in mid-pack while never threatening either.

Despite some odd tactics by Restoring Hope, Justify is very talented and hopefully will run in important summer races and the Breeders’ Cup to complete his storybook career. This is a special horse who deserves all the attention coming.

Baffert is an exceptional trainer who somehow trained Justify to break his maiden in February and then win the Triple Crown. But he needed the right horse to accomplish such a feat, and with Justify, he got it.

We'll hope to see them back at the races later this summer.