Analysis: Justify won Kentucky Derby 2018 the hard way

Despite a fast pace working against him, Justify captured the 2018 Kentucky Derby the hard way, pressing Promises Fulfilled on the lead and putting away Good Magic at the top of the stretch. His impressive win on the pace will probably spark conversations of whether he can pick up another Triple Crown for Bob Baffert, the former trainer of American Pharoah.

How did the pace unfold?

Almost everyone predicted Promises Fulfilled would be sent to the front because his trainer Dale Romans likes to “live by the sword and die by the sword,” as he stated at Gulfstream Park last month. The expected pacesetter utilized his best weapon again and did not hold back, opening the race in 22.24 seconds.

Justify supporters breathed a sigh of relief when the favorite broke well. He used his natural speed to get in position to flank Promises Fulfilled from the outside through the swift opening quarter, and they hit the half-mile mark in 45.77.

To compare this to last year, Justify enjoyed almost the same trip as Always Dreaming, but with faster raw fractions. While some critics may think he enjoyed a cozy trip because he sat outside Promises Fulfilled, this edition went fast. In the 2017 race, State of Honor got the half in 46.53 with Always Dreaming on his tail. While still fast, Promises Fulfilled went quicker.

There were no breaks. Promises Fulfilled and Justify ran hard early, with Good Magic, Bolt d’Oro and Flameaway not far behind.

As for expected pressers Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon, neither horse possessed the speed to keep up early. Mendelssohn only set the pace in the UAE Derby (G2) to take advantage of the golden rail at Meydan. Meanwhile, while Magnum Moon set the pace in the Arkansas Derby (G1) because no one wanted it. In a fast-paced situation, he cannot run with the leaders. 

On the far turn, Justify put away Promises Fulfilled. The field still went at a faster pace than the previous year while getting the six-furlong fraction in 1:11.01. Mind you, over a sloppy track.

Bolt d’Oro ranged up on the outside, but this time he offered absolutely nothing late. He faded sharply in the stretch. Bolt d’Oro’s dam side is compromised heavily with sprinters (Sonic Mule, Recruiting Ready, Cove Blue) which may explain the performance.

Good Magic did hold a chance in mid-stretch. But Justify continued to run well. He took the turn nicely, and did not drift outside like he did in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). In addition, he switched leads in a professional manner and kept his opponent at bay. 

As for any other late challengers, Audible weaved in and out of traffic from the clustered group of horses in midpack. On the turn, he needed to slide through the rail and did. However, Audible could not make a real impact on Justify or Good Magic. He closed decently though and handled the distance.

If people do not believe the pace worked against Justify, look at where some of the horses surrounding him and Good Magic finished.

Other than Bolt d’Oro, Promises Fulfilled folded in almost the same manner he did in the Florida Derby (G1) finishing 15th. Flameaway spun his wheels a little longer, but lost ground steadily in the stretch to end up 13th.

Furthermore, the fourth-place finisher and closer Instilled Regard was on no one’s radar. He benefited from the pace and will be overbet moving forward. Even the hopeless Bravazo made up ground from behind.

The closers had pace. None of them could capitalize. 

Good Magic stuck around because he ran a good race. While his speed figures were a tick lower than the best horses, the Derby acted as his third race off the layoff. Most handicappers believe that is when a horse peaks. 

The final time of 2:04.20 will not impress anyone from a raw number standpoint. But think of how racetracks are when it rains. In most instances, the times become a little bit slower rather than quick. 

Handicappers are obsessed with the final quarter, as if that is the only part of a race. It is almost as if the first part never happened. 

Justify put in his “run” at the beginning, and had enough late. The fact the race slowed down towards the end does not take away from the initial pace. 

Now to chase the Triple Crown. 

Yes, Justify is a Triple Crown kind of horse. To win, he needs to repeat this race twice more. He withstood a fast 45-second half mile in the Derby and still won. What are the chances a horse like this can lose in the final two legs, even if the pace is fast again?

The Preakness (G1) will be a slightly easier task But Justify’s running style is also fine for the Belmont Stakes (G1) as many closers cannot make a run from behind due to the longer distance flattening them out. 

Going back to the Derby discussion, the horse with the best speed figures won. The “other” Apollo Curse horse, Magnum Moon, failed. 

The results show that many handicappers just overcomplicated their analysis. When it comes to the Derby, it is hard to sort through all the noise and figure out who is really giving sound handicapping. But all bettors needed to do was pick the deserving favorite.