Jim Dandy is not as strong as Haskell but remains playable

Forte starts in the Grade 2, $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday as the expected heavy favorite. Pace matters aside, the field is not as strong as the Haskell Stakes (G1) last weekend at Monmouth, although the Grade 1 designation for the Haskell gives it an edge in terms of attracting the best and most well-rounded field. 

A few factors made last weekend's Haskell more exciting than the field lined up for the Jim Dandy.

For one, the Kentucky Derby winner Mage competed in the Haskell, which meant automatic buzz for the race. Even though Forte has demonstrated he can beat Mage, Mage captured the one race everyone knows, and that adds prestige to any race he runs in.  

In addition, the Haskell field contained the West Coast invader Geaux Rocket Ride, the talented up-and-comer Extra Añejo, a Bob Baffert-trained pacesetter in Arabian Knight and the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner Tapit Trice. All of those horses helped make the race a true Grade 1.

Besides Forte, the Jim Dandy contains the talented Saudi Crown, who seeks to move up the 3-year-old ranks after finishing a game second in the Dwyer Stakes (G3), as well as the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Angel of Empire, who deserves credit for his Grade 1 win even if he has been overbet.

Beyond those names though, the race comes off as mild with Disarm and Hit Show completing the field. Both of them own one Grade 3 win apiece, and they were also-rans who performed well in the Kentucky Derby without seriously threatening the leaders Mage and Two Phil’s late in the stretch.

And the Jim Dandy lacks a big West Coast invader. Trainer Bob Baffert ships more often than most West Coast trainers, but with his best 3-year-old horses, he usually opts for the Haskell rather than the Jim Dandy Stakes, maybe because Monmouth is seen as more speed-favoring than most dirt tracks. 

Nevertheless, the Jim Dandy could be a decent betting race depending on what handicappers think of Saudi Crown, the lone speed horse on paper. Saudi Crown could secure an uncontested lead under jockey Florent Geroux and end up long gone before Forte could mount his closing rally in time. Saudi Crown also could get brave with the uncontested lead early on and win a stretch battle against Forte. 

Saudi Crown has never competed beyond one mile, but his pedigree says he should handle nine furlongs. This is a son of the former Derby champion Always Dreaming out of a Tapit mare.

On a related note, trainer Brad Cox scores a perfect 100 on TimeformUS with second-time route horses.

One notable change with Forte is that he adds blinkers. Perhaps trainer Todd Pletcher wants Forte to focus more, but the blinkers come at a good time in this pace scenario because they typically add more speed to a horse.

With blinkers added and Forte’s natural talent, he might overcome any pace advantage Saudi Crown secures in the early stages. But then again, Saudi Crown might own enough ability to lead the field from gate to wire and pull off the mild upset over Forte and the rest. Saudi Crown's ceiling is unclear right now because of his lack of starts. 

Watch Saudi Crown’s odds, and make sure the pace handicappers do not go too crazy betting him down, as he could become underlaid.

Because of their closing styles, Disarm, Hit Show and Angel of Empire feel like extras in a race starring two main characters. If the race comes down to who closes better, it just feels like Forte will get it done. Regardless, maybe some players can make a case for one of them to move forward, as young horses should naturally progress at this time.

Even though the Jim Dandy lacks some of the elements from the Haskell, it remains an interesting race for horseplayers because of the pace scenario. But in the future, Saratoga might want to rethink the ungraded Curlin Stakes and encourage the good 3-year-olds to all come together in the Jim Dandy.