Saudi Derby: Japanese shipper can threaten Havnameltdown

With the presence of Havnameltdown and Bob Baffert in the $1.5 million Saudi Derby at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh on Saturday, it might feel easy to not research the other horses and single the American. But there is one other interesting name who could threaten the favorite.

His name is Derma Sotogake, the Japanese shipper who won the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun last December. That race is a local Grade 1 in Japan and part of the four-race Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. Instead of continuing on that path to the Derby, the connections sent him here.

Admittedly, part of Japanese race analysis is a guess without knowing for sure the quality of those horses. Even a local Grade 1 over there might equal allowance-level racing in the U.S. in terms of field quality. From a visual standpoint though, Derma Sotogake gave a nice impression in his win.

After traveling at the tail end of the first group, Derma Sotogake began to move forward on the far turn and took aim at the leaders from the outside.

As Perriere led the field into the stretch, Derma Sotogake kept grinding away from his wide position. After switching leads late in the stretch, Derma Sotogake took the lead in the last jump to prevail over Omatsuri Otoko, who had moved well through the inside to pass Perriere as well.

Perriere did not finish far behind them in third. Only last weekend, Perriere won the Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse to capture the third points race in Japan and arguably back up the quality of Derma Sotogake’s win.

Another good sign is how Derma Sotogake, Omatsuri Otoko and Perriere started to pull away from the rest of the field in the stretch. Compare the finish of the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun to the Cattleya Stakes won by Continuar, who is also in the Saudi Derby field. The Cattleya is the first points race on the Japan Road to the Derby, but it came off as weak.

The horses finished clustered in the Cattleya, which is usually not a great sign with some exceptions. Most quality dirt races end up with the horses separating from each other as the faster runners pull clear.

Maybe Derma Sotogake can find success in the Saudi Derby. Only two years ago, the Japanese shipper Pink Kamehameha won this race over Cowan, which proves a Japanese horse can win this race over a good American.

But to reinforce how good Havnameltdown is on paper, here is a short recap of his races.

Last year, Havnameltdown won the Best Pal Stakes (G3) and Bob Hope Stakes (G3) while finishing second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) to his stablemate and former division leader Cave Rock. Cave Rock went on to finish second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after setting the pace.

This year, Havnameltdown won the San Vicente Stakes (G2) over Faustin, who remains one of the more highly regarded colts in Bob Baffert’s barn.

Given his early speed, Havnameltdown also can avoid most of the early kickback, although rallying wide is not a bad strategy on the course. When Pink Kamehameha won this race two years ago, Cowan made a wide rally on the turn and kept coming at him from the outside. Cowan fell short by only three-quarters of a length.

The Saudi Derby is a tough race to bet given the number of horses based in Saudi Arabia and foreigners. In most cases, the Americans are best on dirt against international horses. But if Derma Sotogake can get outside in the clear, he can possibly mount the same type of rally he did in the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun. With a clear run and if the ability is there, then mowing down Havnameltdown is not out of the question.