Is Fair Grounds now the strongest route to the Derby?

One of the notable Derby trail trends over the last two years is the emergence of Fair Grounds as a premier circuit for 3-year-olds in the winter and spring. In fact, it has arguably become stronger than the Southern California path to the Kentucky Derby, even though the speed figures were equal or better out west. 

Both Mandaloun and Rich Strike, the last two winners of the Kentucky Derby, competed in at least one Fair Grounds prep on their road to Louisville. Epicenter, this year's runner-up to Rich Strike by less than a length, spent the entire path during the spring at Fair Grounds.

When did Rich Strike compete at Fair Grounds? With all his synthetic races leading up to the Kentucky Derby, it can become easy to forget he finished fifth in the Gun Runner Stakes last December while losing by 14 lengths to Epicenter.

After the Gun Runner, Rich Strike made his base at Turfway Park for the rest of the trail. As stated, Epicenter stuck to the Fair Grounds route, with a second-place finish in the Lecomte Stakes (G3). He followed that effort with impressive wins in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2), making him the clear leader of the Fair Grounds group by April.

Epicenter's Risen Star win in particular contained one of the strongest fields of the Derby prep season, with the troubled third-place Zandon and runner-up Smile Happy going on to finish 1-2 in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.

The fifth-place Tawny Port went on to finish second and ahead of Rich Strike in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park before winning the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. Slow Down Andy, who finished sixth in the Risen Star, later won the Sunland Derby (G3).

Check out Epicenter's speed figures for the entire trail. On Beyer Speed Figures, he roughly resembled the fastest 3-year-olds from California by April, but on TimeformUS, Epicenter seemed slower than Taiba and Messier.

In his four Fair Grounds races last winter and spring, Epicenter earned Beyer Speed Figures of 87, 88, 98 and 102. Compare those numbers to those of the leading California contender Taiba, who came into this year's Kentucky Derby with 103 and 102 Beyer Speed Figures earned in his maiden and Santa Anita Derby (G1) victory. Taiba was developing, but his best Beyer was not better than Epicenter by more than a point.

For those who use TimeformUS, Epicenter's speed figures during the same stretch were 109, 112, 113 and 118, and the inexperienced Taiba had a 121 and 125 on his record. Also, the Santa Anita Derby runner-up Messier posted a huge 127 and 123 on TimeformUS in his two starts before the Kentucky Derby.

In addition, Rich Strike's four TimeformUS Speed Figures before the Kentucky Derby starting with the Gun Runner Stakes were 88, 96, 99 and 108. Again, though, those latter three figures came on synthetic when he competed at Turfway after the initial Fair Grounds effort. As for Zandon, he went from a 108 in his third-place finish in the Risen Star to an improved 119 in his Blue Grass Stakes (G1) win at Keeneland.

Improved or not, Rich Strike, Epicenter and Zandon were significantly slower on TimeformUS Speed Figures than the California pair of Taiba and Messier. Yet Rich Strike, Epicenter and Zandon made up the trifecta in the Kentucky Derby, while Taiba floundered to 12th late (partly because of inexperience) and Messier folded to 15th after briefly hitting the front.

If handicappers go through through this same process for 2021, they will find Mandaloun's figures lacking in comparison to Rock Your World and Medina Spirit. On TimeformUS, Mandaloun went into the Kentucky Derby with a 109, 113 and 104, and Medina Spirit posted a 118, 117, 120 and 118 in his four prep races.

Yet, Medina Spirit crossed the wire only half a length in front of Mandaloun, before a months-later disqualification gave Mandaloun the final victory. As for Rock Your World, he broke in a subpar manner and ended up finishing up the track in 17th.

What does all that mean? Even though the speed figures were either equal or worse at Fair Grounds, depending on the brand, that circuit performed the best. The reason probably lies in the track's decision to tinker with the race distances. When Fair Grounds decided to lengthen their main three Derby prep races in 2020, it somehow attracted stronger fields for 2021 and 2022 and better Kentucky Derby runners.

Perhaps California can become the strongest circuit for Derby runners once again, especially with the talented Arabian Knight and Cave Rock in the barn of trainer Bob Baffert. Give the Fair Grounds group of 3-year-olds extra attention though, especially if Extra Añejo takes the same path as Epicenter last year. They could outperform their numbers again when all the regions meet at Churchill Downs in May.