Is Rombauer a good bet in the Belmont Stakes?

Betting-wise, Rombauer feels like a tough sell in the 153rd Belmont Stakes. Odds and value aside, he is an obvious contender if the connections decide to run, but he does not look like a standout even with his Preakness Stakes win and his odds figure to decrease. The final leg of the Triple Crown is scheduled for June 5 at Belmont Park at 1 1/2 miles.

There are two old betting rules that go against Rombauer.

One of the standard betting rules is to avoid upset winners in their next start, and this applies to the 11-1 Rombauer as he upset the favorite Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon in the Preakness. The breakthrough effort came after a well-beaten third in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) and a win over synthetic in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields.

Most upset winners drop in value next time, and his overall form must back up his lower odds in order to justify playing him again. As a bettor, it feels fair to ask whether Rombauer is capable of backing up the Preakness effort at 1 1/2 miles on a different racetrack against new faces.

If Essential Quality runs in the Belmont, Rombauer will be facing a horse who beat him easily at Keeneland by 5 3/4 lengths. Is it still logical to take Rombauer at single-digit odds if a horse who beat him in such a fashion shows up to run?

Yes, Rombauer won the Preakness by 3 1/2 lengths over Midnight Bourbon, with the maligned Derby champion Medina Spirit in third. What if Midnight Bourbon ends up thriving at the Belmont distance?

An old saying says to make the wedding and miss the funeral as a bettor. If the bettor misses the wedding, or upset winner, then it is too late in many cases. There is no sense in chasing after the winner. 

Given Rombauer has not strung two wins together yet in his career while running mostly as a closer, it is fair to hold skepticism he can string a Preakness-Belmont double. It is unclear if he can even handle 1 1/2 miles, let alone win the marathon against Essential Quality, Midnight Bourbon and more contenders.

As for the second rule, bettors also need to remain wary of horses who receive a pace setup.

Some observers believe Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon ran easily from a visual standpoint in the Preakness, but the numbers tell otherwise. According to TimeformUS, the 46.93 and 1:10.97 middle fractions were fast relative to the distance of the Preakness, as seen from their red labels in the TimeformUS race chart and running lines.

Although Medina Spirit was in his preferred position, the pace was hot.  

After the half-mile, more pressure came along as well.

Any notion of Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon running easily went away when France Go de Ina and Crowded Trade both made early moves on the inside. Crowded Trade did not sustain the move, but France Go de Ina gave Medina Spirit additional pressure from the inside as Midnight Bourbon continued to apply the heat outside.

Rombauer initially settled in midpack through the opening half. As France Go de Ina moved forward and applied the pressure to Medina Spirit, Rombauer inched forward himself right behind the leading pack. Later on when Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon tried to separate from the field on the far turn in their ongoing battle, Rombauer traveled in the clear in third and prepared to strike at the two weary leaders.

From a visual standpoint, it looked great when Rombauer passed Midnight Bourbon, but it came after a generous pace setup. He might not receive similar in the Belmont, especially with Medina Spirit out of the lineup. 

Also, most horses who take advantage of a pace setup become overbet in their next starts because the setup makes them appear greater than reality in the stretch run. Judging by how Essential Quality drubbed Rombauer in the Blue Grass, it would be hard to believe Rombauer easily handled Midnight Bourbon and Medina Spirit without the help of a sharp pace.

Notice that both of Rombauer's stakes wins this year came after a fast pace setup. All four fractions of the El Camino Real Derby in February were given the red label by TimeformUS, setting up Rombauer's kick. In the Blue Grass, Highly Motivated and Essential Quality put up a moderate pace early on, and Rombauer could not keep up with them. 

With the two main points above in mind, Rombauer does not seem like a sound play on top in the Belmont Stakes, even if he could possibly still win with another pace setup. The right time to "have him" was last time. 

As an underneath option, Rombauer is always a logical horse to include in the bottom slots because of his closing style. Based on the list of Belmont probables though, there are better options to pick on top.