How to bet 2-year-olds with Tremont, Astoria stakes on tap

With Triple Crown season coming to a close, a new crop of runners will be in the spotlight later this week as Belmont Park hosts the $150,000 Astoria Stakes for 2-year-old fillies on Thursday and Tremont Stakes for juveniles on Friday.

Once Saratoga opens in late July, then fans become really obsessed with 2-year-old races, starting to wonder, "Could that be the one?"

Handicapping 2-year-old races can be difficult, though, especially when dealing with first time starters. If the runners are experienced, then it gets a little easier as there are at least running lines. Still, bettors need to be aware young horses can jump up in form at any moment and surprise everyone. Speed figures are not stagnant.

With that said, here are some tips to betting 2-year-old races:

For one, and this applies to the two stakes races mentioned, toss out horses who made their career debuts in maiden claimers. Their win might appear impressive on paper, but it came with the horse essentially up for sale. In the Tremont, Girls Love Me is coming off a five-length maiden claiming win at Pimlico and should find open company in the Tremont difficult.

Give closer scrutiny to the horses who made their career debut in a restricted state-bred race as well. Going from New York-breds to facing runners bred in any state is tough, no matter the large margin or speed figure earned. In the Astoria, Six Pack Gal is entering the race off a three-length win against Cal-bred maidens at Santa Anita.

But if the race is not a stakes races and is filled with horses making their career debut, pay close attention to the trainer statistics with first-timers. Some obvious trainers who do well in this category are Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown. Both hit at 20 percent.

Others, such as Bill Mott, are not so lucky, or choose not to gear up their younger horses to win so early.  Mott is not necessarily trying to lose with his youngsters. If he wins, he will take it. The point is, some trainers are using these races as a learning experience for their 2-year-old horses, while keeping the long-term picture in mind. Notice Mott is without an entry in the Astoria or Tremont.

Another tip for maiden special weights is to pay closer attention to pedigree. Some bettors overuse pedigree as the horse gets older. It matters less with experience. When there is little to no experience, however, it helps to look at bloodlines.

There are various ways to analyze pedigree. Looking at the immediate sire, dam and siblings is probably most helpful. If the dam or siblings were routers in their careers, the current horse in question will not like sprint races such as the Tremont and Astoria.

For example, Belmont Stakes contender Hofburg ran a flat fourth in his debut at Saratoga last summer in a seven-furlong race. After some time off, he switched to a route at Gulfstream in March and won. Hofburg is a sibling to Emollient, who ran as a graded stakes router on mainly synthetic and turf in her career.

In reverse, a dam who ran as a sprinter and produces mainly sprinters will likely get first-time out winners. One example is the speedy Dream Rush.

Dream Rush was a very flashy sprinter who won her first two starts in 2006 and used her speed to win races such as the Prioress (G1) and Test Stakes (G1) the next year. She faded to fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. As a broodmare, with some exceptions she creates precocious sprinters who only win their first few starts.

For instance, Dream Rush’s daughter, Dream Pauline, broke her maiden by six lengths in a six-furlong sprint on Dec. 3. It is nice to see her back on the work tab recently, but something went wrong after the debut and she does not show any starts since.

In 2014, Perchance, another daughter of Dream Rush, also broke her maiden as a 2-year-old in a six-furlong sprint while debuting. She only started three more times before disappearing. While she went the wrong way, the point is, when researching pedigree Dream Rush is the kind of dam to look for in 2-year-old races.

Dream Rush’s most famous daughter, Dreaming of Julia, broke her maiden as a 2-year-old while debuting in a six-and-a-half furlong sprint race at Saratoga in 2012. Dreaming of Julia actually stretched out her speed later to one mile in two straight stakes races at Belmont as a 2-year-old and won both. Her route sire A.P. Indy possibly offset some of the major sprint influence of Dream Rush.

When betting 2-year-old races, also pay attention to the odds right before the race.

Anyone who follows New York handicapper Andy Serling on Twitter will hear the term “they knew.” In 2-year-old races where there is not a ton of experience, sometimes “they” bet down the winning horse down to a short price before the race, whether in maidens or stakes races. The angle is strong right now and through Saratoga, before the horses get experience.

Maybe the owners knew their horse worked well and decided to plunk down a lot of cash at the windows. Morning clockers spread the news about how the horse looked, too.

Just know that in 2-year-old races, when a horse is 8-1 on the morning line and suddenly gets bet down to 2-1 or 3-1, then the horse is live. Even better, sometimes the horse does not come from any well-known connections and still gets bet.

Because of the lack of experience in 2-year-old races, this is the only kind of race where bettors should pay extra attention to how the odds shift, even in early stakes races. In normal races, most people should want higher odds for their horse.

Also, how a horse is spotted can indicate how confident the connections are.

For example, in 2013 My Conquestadory made her career debut in the Summer Stakes (G2) at Woodbine. The bettors let her go at 5-1 because she had no experience, not even in a maiden race, and she won by more than three lengths.

If an experienced horseman like trainer Mark Casse is debuting his horse in a Grade 2 race, then he thinks the horse can run. If he thinks the horse needs more time, then there is no reason to be so aggressive with the initial start.

In the Astoria and Tremont, every runner has at least one start. But there might be stakes races down the line where a maiden makes his debut in a stakes.

In reverse, if a 2-year-old horse from a top trainer is running at Belterra when there is a better option such as Churchill Downs available, then that is considered a bad sign.

Do not become so obsessed with speed figures in 2-year-old races this early in the season. As written above, figures are not stagnant right now. A horse who won his debut with a 70 Beyer Speed Figure is eligible to move up to an 85, especially in the Tremont and Astoria. Sudden changes happen as these colts and fillies figure out the game.

In conclusion, playing 2-year-old races requires some experience in figuring out the nuances. For pedigree nerds, this is their favorite kind of race to handicap. For others, it might be wise to be careful and wait for the 2-year-old races where most of the field has more than one start. Then speed figures can be factored in again.