Derby trail: How good is Practical Move after San Felipe win?

Practical Move turned heads last weekend with his winning San Felipe Stakes (G2) effort because he earned a high Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form as well as the figures given by other past-performance brands. With the high figure factored in, Practical Move bolted into the discussion of top Derby candidates.

But a more tepid reaction to the 100 Beyer Speed Figure might be best. After all, a speed figure cannot tell the handicapper everything, and this colt shows a few shortcomings in terms of company kept.

Remember that Practical Move proved no match in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) last November against the two Bob Baffert-trained colts Havnameltdown and Newgate. Practical Move finished third by 3 3/4 lengths.

About a month later, Practical Move won the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) by 3 1/4 lengths after stalking the pace. But who did Practical Move beat?

The runner-up Carmel Road finished a well-beaten eighth in the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct last weekend. In fairness, Carmel Road contested a fast pace in the Gotham that collapsed. But he did not face great horses there and failed to back up the Los Alamitos Futurity race quality.  

In addition, the third-place Fort Bragg finished fifth in the San Felipe in his next start, while the last-place Arabian Lion faded to last again in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) about a month ago. Practical Move’s competition in the Los Alamitos Futurity seems questionable at best.

Now to discuss the other runners behind Practical Move in the San Felipe.

The runner-up Geaux Rocket Ride had only one previous start in a maiden sprint. Yet he turned in a performance good enough to finish within 2 1/2 lengths of possibly the top Kentucky Derby candidate?

Furthermore, the third-place Skinner and fourth-place Hejazi both owned only one maiden win out of four starts prior to the San Felipe, and now they were good enough to finish within four lengths of the top Derby candidate?

Granted, both Skinner and Hejazi previously earned a Grade 1 placing last fall when facing the sharp Cave Rock. But the point is that Practical Move beat a San Felipe field with holes in it in terms of class, as well as a weak five-horse Los Alamitos Futurity field last December.

Without that 100 Beyer Speed Figure, it feels unlikely Practical Move would grab a ton of handicappers’ attention with talented 3-year-olds such as Forte, Arabian Knight and Instant Coffee capturing attention in recent times.  

The speed figure cannot always give away the winner or even identify the best horse. It can give clues, but once the horses meet, the actual results need to count for something as well. For example, Cave Rock held the highest figures heading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, yet Forte handled him in the stretch to win by a little more than a length.

To give some credit to Cave Rock in the Juvenile, he contested the pace with a pesky long shot named Hurricane J, which affected his ability to fight back in the stretch against Forte. But take away the speed figures heading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Cave Rock and Forte would seem equal to each other with two Grade 1 wins in the September and October months before they met at Keeneland.

One other concern is Practical Move’s pedigree, as his sire Practical Joke is not known for siring longer routers. On the bottom side, Practical Move does show 2005 Belmont Stakes champion Afleet Alex as his damsire, which is a positive. Plus, Practical Move’s dam Ack Naughty won four times and all four wins came in turf routes up to 1 1/16 miles.

Once Practical Move participates in a nine-furlong prep race, it will reveal whether he has any problems stretching out. If Practical Move makes a big move and starts to hang in the stretch, then maybe nine furlongs is too far.

Otherwise, if he handles the next prep race, then he should handle 10 furlongs. Practical Move’s bottom side might offset Practical Joke.

In a hypothetical blog top 10 Derby list on here, Practical Move would fall somewhere in the middle. He could back up his 100 Beyer Figure and become a major threat to capture the Kentucky Derby or one of the other Triple Crown races. But he also might become exposed, if not at Santa Anita then at Churchill Downs when he meets Forte and others.

As a handicapper, it is important to use speed figures as tools to help the analysis, and not as answers for every race. Keep that in mind when handicapping Practical Move in his last prep and the first Saturday in May.