How did pace-affected Derby runners fare next time?

As with any race affected by a fast pace, the common approach to a pace-collapsed Kentucky Derby is to favor those horses who ran near or within range of the lead, even if they ended up fading badly in the stretch run.

In this year’s Derby, Summer Is Tomorrow led the 20-horse field through suicidal fractions before the pace collapsed. To check if the pace angle held up, here is a rundown of the first eight horses at the half-mile point in the Kentucky Derby and how they fared in their next start or two.   

Summer Is Tomorrow faded to last after posting brutal fractions of 21.78 and 45.36 seconds. The Dubai-based pacesetter has not made his next start.

Crown Pride tried to press Summer Is Tomorrow in second before fading to 13th. The Japanese-based runner has not made his return to racing either.

Zozos chased the pace from the outside in third and faded to 13th. At this point, the Munnings colt is not on the worktab yet for trainer Brad Cox.

Messier tracked the pace in fourth, made an early move to contest the lead with Crown Pride, and then ended up fading to 15th. He lacks a next start too. After working twice in June, Messier disappeared from the worktab.

Taiba traveled in fifth at the half-mile fraction and faded to 12th. Last month, Taiba returned to racing in the Haskell Stakes (G1) with a runner-up finish to Cyberknife.

Cyberknife chased the Derby pace wide in sixth before fading to 18th. He captured the Haskell after waiting in traffic and making an inside move. Before the Haskell, he also finished first in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3).

Charge It traveled in seventh at the half-mile. His inexperience hampered him and he faded to 17th late. In his next start, he crushed the Dwyer Stakes (G3) field by 23 lengths with a 111 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form.

Epicenter waited in eighth while still running fast pace figures. He moved toward the lead on the far turn and secured it in the stretch, but Rich Strike caught him late. In his next start, Epicenter ended up with traffic problems on the first turn in the Preakness before finishing second to Early Voting. More recently, Epicenter closed for the win in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) over Zandon, Tawny Port and Early Voting in last.

Overall, the angle has held up. Of the first eight horses at the half-mile fractions of the Kentucky Derby, the ones who made their returns performed well. Epicenter finished second in the Preakness and won the Jim Dandy in a dominant fashion. Charge It is a possible star after crushing the Dwyer field. Cyberknife took the Haskell over his fellow Derby also-ran Taiba in second. All four of them were affected by the suicidal Derby pace.

Watch for the returns of Zozos, Summer Is Tomorrow, Crown Pride and Messier to see whether the angle of favoring Kentucky Derby runners who endured a suicidal pace continues to hold up as time goes on. Even if one or two of them flop, the angle seems successful given how Epicenter, Charge It, Cyberknife and Taiba performed in their next races.