Honor Up the value choice in competitive Lexington Stakes

Lower speed figures can be a sign of a slow horse, or in Honor Up’s case in the Grade 2, $200,000 Lexington Stakes, it could be due to not starting in the current season.

Honor Up makes his return after a four-month layoff on Saturday at Keeneland.

His Brisnet Speed Ratings are slow enough that the Prime Power Rating ranks him 10th. While the Power Rating is a compilation of various factors, it tends to favor runners with faster speed figures. On TimeformUS, the 102 and 104 from his last two starts do not compare to most of the field. Without context, this horse is a slug.

But, again, Honor Up earned those numbers as a 2-year-old horse. He cannot be expected to display the same speed figures as runners who competed recently.

The son of To Honor and Serve obviously endured a setback, but taking a break does not mean the horse stops maturing and growing stronger. For trainer Bill Mott to place his colt immediately in a Grade 3 race after a layoff, he must be confident.

Also, look at one race in particular from his record on Nov. 15, when he finished runner-up in a state-bred maiden race at Belmont Park. Honor Up finished second to Audible by a little less than two lengths. That's the same Audible who later on won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) convincingly.

Given more than 12 lengths separated Honor Up and third-place finisher Violent Delights (who won his next start), bettors can consider the effort a quality one.

Furthermore, it is no surprise Honor Up returned to break his maiden by 11 lengths on Dec. 9. The fact he won the race over a good track helps too, as it is expected to rain Saturday in Kentucky.

Unfortunately for Honor Up, the rain will help My Boy Jack, too. The expected favorite burst onto the Kentucky Derby 2018 points scene with a sharp win in the Southwest Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park over a muddy racetrack.

My Boy Jack is the grandson of 1997 Fleur de Lis (G3) winner Gold N Delicious, who won three times over muddy or sloppy dirt surfaces. He gets mud influence from Mineshaft as well, who is a son of A.P. Indy (a solid line for off-track breeding).

While My Boy Jack recently hung in the Louisiana Derby after making an eye-catching move on the far turn, he can rebound in this spot if the pace is fast.

Just be aware he breaks from Post 12, which could mean a wide trip.

A good amount of money will go toward Greyvitos, as he returns after taking the Springboard Mile impressively while enduring a wide trip last December.

The money is justified because he defeated Combatant in the race, and handled Mourinho at Del Mar one start earlier.

It is a concern that the connections could be rushing Greyvitos for the sake of picking up Derby points. With a win in the Lexington, the Malibu Moon colt can pick up 20 additional points for 30 overall, which would leave him on the bubble.

If Greyvitos is tuned up and ready, the 1 1/16-mile distance should pose no problem with his pedigree.

As for other contenders, Telekinesis is mildly interesting as an expensive Ghostzapper colt from Stonestreet Stables. How long can his speed last, though?

Zanesville comes into the race off a closing fourth in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park over synthetic. His maiden-breaking win on Dec. 17 at Fair Grounds is okay, and did occur over a sloppy dirt surface. He can hit the board.

A couple of handicappers will choose the familiar Seven Trumpets, but he became exposed after his slow-paced runner-up finish in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct.

He lost by 19 lengths in the Southwest and nine lengths in the lowly Sunland Derby (G3). 

Pony Up is going to be a horse people bet on too, and it is understandable why since he finished a close second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks to Blended Citizen.

Yet, he runs like a turf horse by lingering around the back and making one move. Note that when he ran on dirt in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2), it resulted in a 20-length loss. His Gulfstream maiden dirt sprint last July was a better-looking effort.

Perhaps he only looked good in his career debut over dirt because the other horses were inexperienced.

Honor Up is the value choice, while My Boy Jack or Greyvitos are probably the most likely winners. If fans go insane and bet Honor Up down to 6-1 or less, then forget about him. But anything around his morning line odds constitutes value.