Holy Bull Stakes 2022: 1 key and 2 exacta plays

Potential Derby contenders meet in the Grade 3, $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream on Saturday as part of a card filled with five stakes races. The morning line favorite Mo Donegal looks capable of winning his second Derby trail race, but he is not a standout contender on paper.  

                    Click here for Gulfstream Entries, Results.

A better choice on top is Simplification, who was discussed on this blog a few days ago as a horse to fear if he enters the race. 

As stated earlier, Simplification has shown the ability to blow out weaker opponents and win by a clear margin at the stakes level. He broke his maiden against local Florida-breds last October by 16 3/4 lengths. Two starts later, Simplification won the Mucho Macho Man Stakes by four lengths.

Simplification’s running mechanics are solid. From watching the Mucho Macho Man replay, there are no strange quirks to note in the stretch.

He switches leads with no problem and runs straight towards the wire.

From a speed figure standpoint, Simplification also owns the second-highest TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field with a 106 for his Mucho Macho Man win last month. The high TimeformUS figure in the field belongs to Giant Game, who was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a 108. Two points is not a huge difference to worry about. On TimeformUS numbers, the two horses are basically equal.

Simplification’s pedigree says he is supposed to handle the stretchout to one and one-sixteenth miles. His second dam Ballado’s Halo is a full sister to two successful stakes routers in Ashado and Sunriver. The former name won the 2004 Kentucky Oaks, Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Distaff in the same year. The latter sibling won the 2007 Hollywood Turf Cup (G1) to close out his career. This is a stamina-oriented dam line.

In addition, Simplification owns speed on a dirt track labeled by most handicappers as speed favoring to a high degree. From Post 4, there is no reason for Simplification not to aim for the lead, especially when there are no major speed threats on paper to hinder his trip up front.

Simplification is worthy of being a single in multi-race wagers and a key on top in vertical wagers. Because Gulfstream chose to end the card with a $16k claiming race, playing the race vertically is more appealing.

This blog is against Mo Donegal for the first and second spots. He is a bit suspect as a shipper from Aqueduct facing an entirely different group here. 

Two horses fit well in the second slot.  

Giant Game was the third-place finisher in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Corniche and Pappacap. He did not “clunk” into third either. Rather, Giant Game made a wide and menacing move on the far turn before stalling in the stretch and losing by only 3 ¼ lengths to the sharp Corniche.

Given Corniche’s easy and uncontested lead in the Juvenile, it is understandable that Giant Game could not finish him off in the stretch.

Note that Pappacap went on to finish a close third in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds last month. Pappacap only lost by three quarters of a length to Call Me Midnight, which is interesting because Giant Game broke his maiden by three lengths over Call Me Midnight in an Oct. 9 maiden race at Keeneland.

The only concern is the Post 9 draw for Giant Game. The wide post position is part of the reason why Giant Game is not the top selection in this article. Jockey Luis Saez needs to cross over and avoid losing significant ground on the first turn, otherwise Giant Game is in trouble in this Gulfstream two-turn dirt route.

With that said, Saez is an aggressive rider and likely to give Giant Game the best ride possible. Expect him to minimize the wide post effects.  

Simplification with Giant Game is the main exacta play.

As for Galt, pedigree experts may know him as the full sibling to the famous Songbird, who won an incredible $4.6 million in her career.

In his most recent start on Dec. 26, Galt broke his maiden locally by three lengths. The Todd Pletcher-trained Outperform had a better striking position than Galt on the backside with a clear outside stalking position, but he faded on the far turn while Galt made his winning move by switching outside and sweeping by.

Towards the wire, Galt widened his margin nicely with each stride

Galt did not earn a great TimeformUS figure by only receiving a 91 for the maiden win. As a son of Medaglia d'Oro though, the potential is there to step forward. Remember, speed figures for young horses are liable to jump forward quickly with more racing experience and normal physical growth. Galt makes the fourth start of his career in the Holy Bull.

A cheaper ticket with Simplification over Galt is the other exacta. If Galt takes advantage of saving ground and fires, he can reach second.

Also think about a win bet on Simplification alongside the exactas. If  Simplification wins the Holy Bull and the runner-up is a name other than Galt or Giant Game, then a win bet will cover the cost of the tickets. 

Here are the final bets in number form. Good luck. 

Win: 4

Exacta: 4 / 9

Exacta: 4 / 1 (for less money)