Friday plays: Keeneland's Franklin County and late Pick 4

Even though the “win and you’re in” Breeders’ Cup prep races are over in North America, the stakes action continues at Keeneland this week. On Friday, the track hosts the Grade 3, $150,000 Franklin County Stakes for female turf sprinters. The race five-and-a-half-furlong race features 12 fillies and mares.

Here is analysis for the Franklin County and the surrounding Pick 4.

Keeneland Race 7: Allowance

This turf route for fillies and mares is not an easy race to handicap.

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, a fast pace is brewing with Breeze Rider, Bacchanalia, Sweet Melania and Whimsical Muse all owning speed.

Winter Sunset, Curly Ruth, Joy Epifora, Alta’s Award and Market Rumor show TimeformUS Late Pace Ratings of 100 or higher. Assuming the early speed entries do not scratch, these are the five closers to use.

If some of the speed horses scratch, then maybe it is time to hit the All button, or wait for a better Pick 4 sequence on another day. 

Contenders: No. 1 Winter Sunset (20-1), No. 2 Curly Ruth (8-1), No. 9 Joy Epifora (8-1), No. 10 Alta’s Award (6-1), No. 11 Market Rumor (5-1)

Note: Not a great race to attack vertically. 

Keeneland Race 8: Allowance

The favorite Silver Strand shows only one maiden start. She won by 1 1/4 lengths at Saratoga on Aug. 19 in a six-and-a-half-furlong race.

Despite the mild winning margin, the efforts of her opponents in maiden races later suggest Silver Strand beat a quality field.

The runner-up Shalimar Gardens broke her maiden by 11 3/4 lengths at Belmont on Sept. 26. The third-place Sarah Harper broke her maiden by seven lengths at Churchill Downs on Sept. 26 as well. Even the fourth-place O’Gotten Girl won a maiden special weight on turf at Belmont on Sept. 16.

The three wins bode well for Silver Strand’s chances.

Bettors with a larger budget who want a backup option might also use the returning Center Aisle. Last year, she ran third in the Victory Ride Stakes (G3) at Belmont and third in the Prioress Stakes (G2) at Saratoga.

Top selection: No. 5 Silver Strand (7-5)

Contender: No. 2 Center Aisle (9-5)

Keeneland Race 9: Franklin County Stakes (G3)

Campanelle holds the class edge based on her narrow loss to Dragon Symbol in the six-furlong Commonwealth Cup (G1) during the Royal Ascot meet.

Dragon Symbol went on to finish second in the July Cup (G1) and King George Qatar Stakes (G2), as well as run third in the Nunthorpe Stakes (G1).

Toss out Campanelle’s more recent last-place finish in the Prix Maurice de Gheest (G1). According to TimeformUS, she “reared badly leaving stalls unbalancing her rider who quickly switched her to race alone on the far side.” For some reason, she did not travel to the gate with her usual pony.

If Campanelle fires her race, she is supposed to win.  

In Good Spirits is also usable based on her two-length win in the Mint Ladies Sprint Stakes (G3) at Kentucky Downs and second in the Caress Stakes (G3) at Saratoga. She possesses enough speed to secure a great stalking position.

Also consider the long shot Lagertha, who held a two-length advantage at an early point in the stretch of the Mint Ladies Sprint before fading. On the cutback to five-and-a-half furlongs on a standard track, she might improve and last longer. Although she is not 68-1 anymore, she is 20-1.

Top selection: No. 4 Campanelle (7-2)

Contender: No. 5 In Good Spirits (9-2)

Live longshot: No. 3 Lagertha (20-1)

Keeneland Race 10: Maiden

La Bombonera makes her second career start for trainer Brad Cox, who normally does not tune up his horses for their first race. She warrants respect based on her career debut and the reliable trainer. 

In that Sept. 19 maiden race at Churchill Downs, La Bombonera made an early bid to come right next to the leaders on the outside on the turn, before flattening out late. She ran like a horse short on fitness. 

Now, La Bombonera gets the services of Florent Geroux, who works well with Cox. She is likely to come into this race more cranked up.

The next best option is the morning-line favorite Golden Sights, who owns two seconds in three starts. In a Sept. 24 maiden at Churchill Downs, she ran a distant second to Penny Saver, who won by a crushing 9 1/2 lengths. On the negative side, Penny Saver disappointed in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) with a seventh-place finish. 

Regardless, as long as the first-time starters in this race are not monsters, Golden Sights can win in her fourth career start for trainer Rodolphe Brisset.

Also consider the first-time starter Fast and Flirty. She sold for $32,000 as a yearling last October, and the price rose to $120,000 at the OBS April sale.

Fast and Flirty is a daughter of Into Mischief, a great win-early sire.

Top selection: No. 9 La Bombonera (5-1)

Contender: No. 10 Golden Sights (3-1)

Best value: No. 7 Fast and Flirty (8-1)