Friday 5: Bast can break her maiden in Del Mar Debutante

Two-year-old races are great because it forces the bettor to look at the bigger picture, and not as much at speed figures or wins. With babies, it is more about figuring out the potential of the horse to move forward than looking at the past..

In Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 Del Mar Debutante, there is one maiden with a high ceiling and can win with a slight step forward -- and she leads this collection of Saturday picks.

Del Mar Race 9: Del Mar Debutante (G1)

Bast is still a maiden with a runner-up finish on debut to Inspiressa. That is a good sign, though. Most connections do not enter maidens in a Grade 1 race unless they believe in the horse. Otherwise, they will find a softer spot to go through conditions.

Furthermore, it is questionable whether there is any difference between Inspiressa and Bast. Inspiressa won last time, but she also opened in 22.06 and 45.87, which look like slow fractions for a 5 ½-furlong race. Bast ranged up on the outside and finished 1 ¼ lengths behind, and 4 ½ ahead of the third-place filly America's Surprise, a sibling of Songbird.

In her final breeze, Bast also outworked Quality Response, an unraced and expensive Quality Road filly.

Without a doubt, this is a tough race. Besides Inspiressa, Bast also needs to deal with impressive maiden winners in Pure Xena, Leucothea and Stellar Sound.

At 7-2, however, Bast offers good value.

Del Mar Race 7: John C. Mabee Stakes (G2)

Vasilika enters this race as the deserving favorite, but at 9-5 it is worth taking a shot against her. After all, she recently finished third in the Yellow Ribbon Stakes (G2) and her big wins come against overmatched west coast competition.

My final choice came between Toinette and Juliet Foxtrot. While the former owns a bright future, it is unclear whether she wants nine furlongs.

In contrast, Juliet Foxtrot just won the 1 3/16-mile Modesty Handicap (G3) at Arlington Park and a nine-furlong optional claimer at Churchill Downs. Furthermore, she could either set the pace or stalk, making her versatile.

While Juliet Foxtrot's class is a question, for the most part east coast fillies and mares are better turf horses. Over the past year, trainer Brad Cox has won at Del Mar, too, including a defeat of Vasilika last time with Beau Recall.

Expect Juliet Foxtrot to secure a good position and fire.

Del Mar Race 8: Maiden

Honor Among Men worked in company with Mind Out on Aug. 11. Mind Out went on to break her maiden by ¾ of a length 10 days later despite getting off to a slow star.

Mind Out technically “won” her workout with Honor Among Men by finishing stronger toward the end, but Honor Among Men showed good interest early on by tugging against the rider. It looked like he wanted to do more.

Furthermore, trainer Simon Callaghan hits a 29% clip with first-time starters.

In most races, it is great if the public ignores a horse because it means the better gets more value. But in this one, watch if Honor Among Men dips significantly below his 8-1 morning line. If he does, consider this entry live.

Saratoga Race 3: Prioress Stakes (G2)

Break Even, Risky Mandate and Royal Charlotte are all logical contenders in this six-horse field. No one will be surprised if any of them wins.

But South of France is the selection given the price.

South of France recently finished second in a local optional claimer to Talk Veuve to Me, who can run at a high level on her best days. Now she makes her second start off the layoff for Todd Pletcher, and John Velazquez stays.

How often is the Pletcher/Velazquez combination 20-1?

Plus, South of France will get some pace with Break Even and Break Curfew.

Of course, the 20-1 morning could be wrong, as every odds maker can overlook a horse now and then. But it appears she will start no lower than fourth choice.

Saratoga Race 5: Maiden

A few weeks ago, I mentioned a first-time starter named Tumbling Sky, who won his career debut in somewhat green fashion.

Out of the same race, Famished closed to finish third, only three lengths behind.

Famished experienced trouble throughout the race, including getting bumped at the break, pinched back and running wide. Yet, he ran well.

Also, Famished retains the services of Joel Rosario, which is a good sign.

The connections did not pay $375,000 for this Uncle Mo colt only a few months ago for nothing. Expect him to show more speed and win.