Forte clearly leads 3-year-old division after Fountain of Youth

Despite capturing the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream last weekend with ease, Forte did not earn the highest speed figures last weekend in the 3-year-old division. But when evaluating the types of fields Forte has beaten dating back to last September and his successful return effort at Gulfstream, it is clear he deserves the highest respect.

Forte keeps winning stakes races that end up looking strong in retrospect because of what his opponents accomplish moving forward. 

For example, Forte took the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at Saratoga at the end of last summer. Note the third-place Blazing Sevens, who went on to capture the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park over the slop before finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In the Hopeful, Forte beat him by 12 lengths.

Next, Forte competed in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, where he battled down the stretch against Loggins and prevailed by a neck. Loggins went on the shelf after the big runner-up performance and remains on his break today. 

Look at the names behind Forte and Loggins.

Red Route One, who made a mild bid to close for third and 6 3/4 lengths behind Loggins in second, went on to run a troubled fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. Then in Red Route One's two starts this year, he closed for second in the Southwest Stakes (G3) behind Arabian Knight and second in the Rebel Stakes (G2) as well. 

The fourth-place Instant Coffee went on to capture the Kentucky Jockey Stakes (G2) in November and Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds earlier this year.

The fifth-place Newgate finished second in both in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar last November and the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita before winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) over his three Bob Baffert stablemates Hard to Figure, Worcester and Arabian Lion in last.

Forte had troubled beating only Loggins in this race, and Loggins is not present to compete in the Derby trail races or Triple Crown Series.

In Forte’s next start, he captured the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 1 1/2 lengths over Cave Rock. Before the race, the public hailed Cave Rock as the best colt in the division off his strong wins in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and American Pharoah Stakes (G1). Many handicappers ended up conceding the Juvenile to Cave Rock because of his speed figures. 

To Cave Rock’s credit, he contested the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile pace with a pesky 70-1 long shot named Hurricane J, which weakened his ability to finish. But if Cave Rock cannot handle contesting the pace with a long shot in that situation, how is he going to endure the usually rapid Kentucky Derby pace?

In Forte's return race last weekend in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream, he easily handled the field by 4 1/2 lengths. Note the runner-up Rocket Can, who had won the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) in his previous start.

In addition, the fourth-place Mage attracted hype before the race because of his impressive maiden win. But the inexperience hurt him, as Mage started slow and ended up traveling wide on both turns.

Forte earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure and 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his Fountain of Youth win, and Practical Joke took the San Felipe Stakes (G2) on the same day at Santa Anita with a 100 Beyer and 119 on TimeformUS.

Forget about the figures, though. All signs point to Forte as the best runner in his division based the horses he beat and the ease in which he beat them.

Speed figures can give an idea of which horses in different regions are faster, but they cannot tell with certainty which horses are best. Only when horses travel and face each other can the true best horse reveal itself. Forte had worse speed figures than Cave Rock heading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, yet Forte beat him without any problem.

Forte deserved the title as best in the 2-year-old division off the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Then he returned a winner in the Fountain of Youth to reaffirm his place on top of the mountain, even with the looming presence of Arabian Knight and the improving Instant Coffee lurking right behind him. Those two horses need to prove they can beat Forte, not the other way around. 

Until Forte loses, he remains on top of the mountain. Judging by his return, he will not lose easily in his next start without a big performance from another challenger.