5 Breeders' Cup horses who were pace compromised

Breeders' Cup weekend offers all sorts of challenges that make it the championship series racing fans know. In terms of pace, Breeders’ Cup races traditionally result in a number of fast-paced scenarios for handicappers to study. There usually are also a couple of slow-pace scenarios to note, or ones where the pacesetter ran uncontested.

Below are five horses from the 2020 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland who were affected by the pace scenario, whether fast or slow, and who could provide value from a betting standpoint because of their losses. 

Betting horses exiting those races is tricky because the public generally does not ignore horses with Breeders’ Cup in their running lines, but these horses might not grab as much attention as ones with big trainers. 

Dreamer’s Disease — Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

This long shot’s effort in the Juvenile deserves another look. At 41-1, Dreamer’s Disease set the pace with opening fractions of 22.58 and 45.31 while under pressure from the Todd Pletcher-trained Likeable.

According to TimeformUS, those first two fractions are labeled in red and translate into fast 147 and 150 pace figures, giving Dreamer’s Disease every right to fold in the stretch.

After putting away Likeable, Dreamer’s Disease began his fade at the top of the stretch. But he still ran reasonably well, considering the pace, and held sixth, 9 3/4 lengths behind Essential Quality. For the sixth-place finish, TimeformUS gave him a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Consider that Likeable folded to 13th by 22 lengths. Also, Classier had chased them in third for the opening quarter and ended up eighth, 12 lengths behind Essential Quality.

Jackie’s Warrior also ran close to the pace in the early stages, and he took over the lead from Dreamer’s Disease on the turn before fading to fourth by 3 1/4 lengths. However, the public is not going to ignore him no matter if he wins by 10, loses with an excuse or misfires for no reason. 

In contrast, the public will continue to ignore Dreamer’s Disease, especially with the sixth-place finish. Give him a close look next time. 

Sharp Samurai — Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Knicks Go ran an incredible race to capture the Dirt Mile. Despite setting a torrid pace through 21.98, 44.40 and 1:08.25 fractions while taking pressure from Complexity, Knicks Go put him away and won by 3 1/2 lengths.

Complexity is the pace-compromised loser, but it is unclear whether the connections want to keep him in training moving forward. Even if he does run again, he is too popular to get excited about wagering on him.

For a lower-profile horse to take out of the Dirt Mile, Sharp Samurai offers value after finishing third with early trouble. He never ran very far off the pace, only falling four lengths behind before coming within 1 1/2 lengths on the far turn and flattening out. For the early efforts, TimeformUS gave him fast pace figures of 132, 132 and 134.

Those pace figures for a horse in third early on only show how fast the pacesetter Knicks Go and Complexity ran. In most “normal” races, those figures would put Sharp Samurai on the lead or pressing the leader, but the pace was so fast in the Dirt Mile that he could only chase in third. 

In his next start, Sharp Samurai figures to leap forward with a winning effort once he realizes the fractions are normal.

Watch and see where the connections point him. If the race offers a moderate pace or less on dirt, he is one that bettors need to consider. 

Empire of Gold — Breeders’ Cup Sprint

At this point, it is time to call Empire of Gold a top sprinter.

In the Phoenix Stakes (G2), Empire of Gold contested the pace at 51-1 and opened up in the stretch run before Diamond Oops caught him to win by 3/4 of a length.

The public continued to ignore Empire of Gold in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint as he went off at 51-1. He gave virtually the same effort by contesting a fast early pace and fading to fourth in the stretch. Empire of Gold lost to the winner Whitmore by 4 1/4 lengths, but he lost second by only one length to C Z Rocket, a multiple graded stakes winner.

Empire of Gold shows a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his fourth in the Breeders’ Cup and a 121 for the runner-up in the Phoenix. As a 3-year-old on the rise, expect him to keep improving as time goes on. 

Harvest Moon — Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Harvest Moon is another 3-year-old on the upswing. In this filly’s Breeders’ Cup prep race, she took the Zenyatta Stakes (G2) against three older female runners.

Then in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Harvest Moon contested the pace through fairly swift fractions of 23.11, 46.03 and 1:09.94. She also shows TimeformUS Pace Figures of 131, 130 and 132 for those fractions before finally slowing down late.

With a slight fade late, Harvest Moon finished fourth by 2 1/2 lengths. Consider that her pace opponent Lady Kate folded to last by 12 3/4 lengths. Ollie’s Candy had followed them in third and also faded to eighth, 8 1/4 lengths behind the impressive winner Monomoy Girl.

In other words, Harvest Moon withstood the pace and still came within 2 1/2 lengths of the champion Monomoy Girl, and her ceiling remains high as a 3-year-old filly who could become stronger and better soon. 

Expect Harvest Moon to become one of the leaders of the division. 

Global Campaign — Breeders’ Cup Classic

The Breeders’ Cup Classic is a tricky race to analyze because the early fractions of 23.20 and 46.84 indicate a moderately fast pace for 1 1/4 miles.

However, the pacesetter Authentic led uncontested, which is how he won all his previous route races. For those types of horses, sometimes leading without any horse breathing down their neck is all it takes. 

If Authentic received his trip, the rest of the field had no fair chance.

Global Campaign made a mistake in leaving Authentic alone in the first place. But to his credit, he did attempt an early move along with Improbable before the far turn. Global Campaign stalled a bit as Improbable went on with the move. But there is no point in pointing out Improbable because the connections chose to retire him.

If nothing else, Global Campaign ran well enough late to hold third late over a closing Tacitus and Tiz the Law. He lost by 3 1/4 lengths to Authentic while also earning a respectable 126 figure on TimeformUS.

Given that Global Campaign runs better as a pacesetter or contesting the pace, his effort is respectable and one that fits the "compromised" label because of the uncontested lead Authentic received in most of the race.

If Global Campaign continues to run next year, study his trip in the Breeders' Cup Classic and give him consideration wherever he ends up.