Finding a longshot alternative in Coaching Club American Oaks

Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou will headline the Grade 1, $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga on Sunday, and both deserve the spotlight. The former comes off three straight Grade 1 victories including the Kentucky Oaks, and the latter won the Mother Goose Stakes (G2) by six lengths at Belmont in a hand ride.

Most bettors can see these two horses are the best in the race, but as with much of my analysis, I'll focus on an alternative choice: Gio Game.

On numbers alone, she may look short with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned in the Acorn Stakes (G1). However, the one-mile, one-turn settings of the Acorn are different compared to the conditions of this race. Gio Game ran well enough last time.

TimeformUS believes the pace initially went slow, but it was also contested. Monomoy Girl received the perfect trip settling off two dueling leaders in Moonshine Memories and Talk Veuve to Me, while Gio Game was positioned farther back in fourth.

Gio Game made a mild move around the turn and then hung a little bit as Monomoy Girl worked her way past Talk Veuve to Me for the win.

It could be a different story at 1 1/8 miles around two turns. When horses stall in their rally, it either means the distance is too long, or the distance is too short and the horse cannot keep up at a faster pace. Longer races logically move at a slower pace.

Gio Game has always acted like a filly who wants more distance, as she flopped in her career debut at 5 ½ furlongs and then improved by running third when stretched out to a traditional two-turn route, albeit on turf. Note the winner of that one, Significant Form, who is currently considered one of the top 3-year-old turf fillies.

Afterward, Gio Game broke her maiden by nine lengths running two turns at Keeneland, and the connections decided to attempt the Breeders’ Cup.

Unfortunately, she did not run well. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies flop can be thrown out, though. As with the Kentucky Derby, Breeders’ Cup races can give horses strange running lines that do not give a clear indication of form.

When Gio Game returned earlier this year, she again ran a strong third in a turf route, before coming back to Keeneland and finishing a good second to Go Google Yourself in a high-level optional claimer. She then took an optional claimer by a head at Churchill Downs against She’s a Julie, who later on won the Iowa Oaks (G3).

Both the Keeneland and Churchill race came around two turns. Gio Game is most likely a better horse around two turns, and the Acorn at Belmont was run around one turn. If Gio Game gets into the mix early through an expected slow pace, she can upset.

As for Monomoy Girl, she is the reigning Kentucky Oaks champion and did well to back up the win in the Acorn. Her TimeformUS numbers rank as the best in the field too. There are not a lot of strikes here, and the expected soft pace should help.

If there is anything to nitpick, TimeformUS indicates a speed-biased track for the Kentucky Oaks victory with light red coding, meaning the surface possibly helped Monomoy Girl. This could be trivial, as Monomoy Girl earned a 125 in that race.

The Pace Projector predicts Monomoy Girl will lead the field with Gio Game to her outside. Maybe they will go faster than expected? Julien Leparoux on Gio Game will know Monomoy Girl cannot be left uncontested. But if Monomoy Girl is leading with space behind, the race could be over. She is too talented to give up an easy lead.

Perhaps if Monomoy Girl and Gio Game wear each other out, Midnight Bisou will unleash her usual closing run and pick up a second Grade I victory this year.

Midnight Bisou feels overhyped, as her best TimeformUS Speed Figure is 117. While Gio Game’s best number is 112, at least she is not 7/5 on the morning line. Midnight Bisou also received a break in the Mother Goose when three fillies scratched.  

In addition, Midnight Lute is not a great longer-distance sire. He excels at producing sprinters and milers, although Midnight Bisou did run third in the Kentucky Oaks. But as mentioned above, the track arguably worked against closers and helped Monomoy Girl.

Rounding out the field are Eskimo Kisses and Chocolate Martini. Both are expected to come from behind as well. Like Midnight Bisou, they will need pace.

Eskimo Kisses ran into some trouble late in the Kentucky Oaks when moving inside. In a shorter field, it is harder for a closer to run into traffic problems, so maybe she can turn in a stronger effort here. She only finished half a length behind Midnight Bisou.

Chocolate Martini defeated Eskimo Kisses by a head in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) in March, and then flattened out for fifth in the Kentucky Oaks. It is possible nine furlongs is too long for her, although scoring an upset is not completely impossible.

It is easy to get caught up in the hype of Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou, but those star fillies will not reward anyone with healthy payoffs. While they need to be used for the Pick 4, it might be a good idea to throw in Gio Game, too.