Haskell 2023: Expect a fast pace led by Arabian Knight

Whenever trainer Bob Baffert enters a good speed horse in a major stakes race, the threat of a wire job is there. In this case, Baffert has sent the speedy Arabian Knight to Monmouth for the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes, and he has a good chance of securing the lead if he tries. But he would end up setting a fast pace in securing that lead.

At this point in his career, Arabian Knight only knows how to set the pace and win. Reaching the front will not come easy, though, because other good horses in the field own speed, including Extra Añejo and Geaux Rocket Ride. They could scare Arabian Knight in the opening quarter by pretending to go with him for a little bit. But those two horses bring tactical speed, which means they can hold back a bit.   

For example, in Extra Añejo’s most recent start at Ellis Park, he let a pacesetter go crazy with a loose lead early on while he sat four lengths back through the opening quarter and half-mile. But he probably cannot let Arabian Knight secure the same kind of lead in this race. 

Two starts ago in a sprint race at Churchill Downs, Extra Añejo ran in a mid-pack position before moving late to finish second in his return race.

As for Geaux Rocket Ride, he made use of stalking tactics in the Affirmed Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita before winning over a weak field, including the runner-up Mr Fisk. In March, he also sat off the leader Hejazi in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) before running second to Practical Move, who went on to capture the Santa Anita Derby (G1). 

Geaux Rocket Ride can run faster early on. In his January career debut, he set the pace in a six-furlong sprint at Santa Anita and won easily. 

Arabian Knight set the pace with a slight cushion in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn, but the fractions were not dawdling since he went in 22.98 and 46.82 seconds for the first two fractions over the sloppy track. In terms of TimeformUS Pace Figures, those fractions translated into 132 and 125.

Despite running fast early, Arabian Knight still drew off in the stretch for an impressive 5 1/2-length win over the closing Red Route One in second.

In his career debut at Keeneland last November, Arabian Knight set the pace with a slight cushion in a seven-furlong maiden special weight. The initial fractions of 22.47 and 45.78 seconds do not appear very fast, although TimeformUS does give the first fraction a quick 133 on their pace figures.

With all those points in mind, Arabian Knight should cross over from the outside post and make an early bid for the lead under aggressive handling from jockey John Velazquez. Arabian Knight likely will secure the lead while positing the fast fractions required to make it happen.

Extra Añejo probably will run with Arabian Knight before letting him cross over and switching to the outside position. From there, Extra Añejo can sit about a length or two off Arabian Knight through the fast pace. His raw talent will need to carry him home in the stretch run. 

Geaux Rocket Ride might need to use speed anyway from the rail to secure a good position. Look for him to break well and temporarily contest the lead around the first turn before letting Arabian Knight cross over. Perhaps Geaux Rocket Ride will sit patiently in the pocket position in third and wait for the right moment under Mike Smith.

Long shots Awesome Strong and Howgreatisnate figure to settle behind the initial leading trio. Both possess enough tactical speed to stay within range for at least the first portion of the race.  

Kentucky Derby champion Mage could run with those long shots in mid-pack or fall farther back if he starts slowly again. Mage ran in a stalking position during the Preakness Stakes, but that was partially the result of a slow pace. In this scenario, a closing position is more likely. 

Salute the Stars will find himself in mid-pack as well or toward the rear of the field given the fast pace scenario brewing up. 

Tapit Trice likely will start at the rear as usual. But after a slow start, he could try for an aggressive early move under Luis Saez, who guided him outside in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and pushed him to the front by the far turn. The early Blue Grass move resulted in Tapit Trice winning. 

The pace will run fast, but that does not mean the leaders will throw in the towel. Arabian Knight, Extra Añejo and even Geaux Rocket Ride are talented speed horses who might endure the pace scenario and still kick in late. At the same time, the closers will get their fair chance to shine as well.

Given the high quality of both speed horses and closers in this race, and the fast pace lined up to give those closers a fair chance, handicappers can go in a number of directions in their wagering. Few of those answers will be wrong as long as the value holds up on their selections.

No matter what happens, this is an excellent edition of the Haskell.