Expect Flightline to break 120 Beyer in Breeders' Cup

Although Flightline has been ultra-impressive in his four starts heading into the Grade 1, $1 million Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Saturday, the son of Tapit must rise to a higher level on the Beyer Speed Figure scale to stamp his career with something memorable other than his spaced-out wins.

If Flightline cannot win a large number of races because of his fragility, then his legacy might depend more on what kind of Beyer he can earn at his best. Can Flightline break 120 on the Beyer scale and join some great names?

The answer is yes. If Flightline stays healthy and competes in the Pacific Classic this week and the Breeders’ Cup Classic or another Grade 1 later this year, then fans probably will see the 120 Beyer or higher.

Officially, Groovy holds the two highest Beyer Speed Figures of 134 and 131. Many other great horses throughout time posted Beyers in the 120s. For example, Ghostzapper won the 2004 Philip H. Iselin Handicap (G3) at Monmouth with a 128. Sunday Silence and Easy Goer both posted 124 Beyers when they ran 1-2 in the 1989 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The information for those top Beyer Speed Figures was taken from thederbyhandicapper.com. Secretariat’s Beyer from the 1973 Belmont Stakes is not part of the list. According to blog author Michael J. Cox, “Andrew Beyer speculated that had his figures existed in 1973, Secretariat would have scored 139 in his classic 1973 win at the Belmont Stakes.”

At this point, Flightline does not own any Beyer Speed Figure at 120 or above. But he came close. His highest Beyer came when he posted a 118 in his 11 1/2-length win in the Malibu Stakes (G1) last December at Santa Anita.  

From a visual standpoint, Flightline looked like Ghostzapper in the stretch.

Using Ghostzapper to compare to Flightline is also interesting because Ghostzapper’s career trajectory ran on similar path, except that he competed slightly more often. Ghostzapper began his career in sprints and stuck to those races throughout his 3-year-old season. In his 4-year-old season and second start of the year, Ghostzapper broke out with a 128 Beyer in his first route attempt when capturing the Philip H. Iselin Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G3).

Ghostzapper’s impressive Philip H. Iselin effort came after his successful July season debut in the seven-furlong Tom Fool Handicap (G2) at Belmont. The son of Awesome Again won the Tom Fool by 4 1/4 lengths with a 120 Beyer Speed Figure.  

With only four career starts deep into his 4-year-old season, Flightline lacks the same seasoning as Ghostzapper, who was considered very lightly raced at the time. Ghostzapper had four starts alone as a 3-year-old and six overall starts by the time he entered his excellent 4-year-old season. Remember that lighter racing schedules is one cause of Beyer Speed Figures decreasing overall, as it becomes harder for horses to hit their peaks. 

Because Flightline takes layoffs after each race, getting to see his full ability in terms of Beyer Speed Figures is hard because he cannot get into the flow of racing that many horses get into with a real campaign. Although Flightline ran great when he won the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) in June this year with a 112 Beyer Figure, horses do not tend to peak off the layoff. They tend to peak in their second or third start back.

If Flightline runs in the Pacific Classic this week with no problems and then competes two months later in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November, then that might be enough racing to allow Flightline to peak in the Breeders’ Cup and run a great Beyer Speed Figure that can equal or surpass the 120 mark. Perhaps he can match Ghostzapper with a 128.

Last year, Flightline peaked in his third start of the year with a 118. When Flightline makes his third start this year, it only makes sense that he could break 120 on the Beyer scale, especially considering that trainer John Sadler will crank him up to his full abilities for the Breeders' Cup.

With Flightline's talent, the sky is the limit in terms of speed figures.