Saratoga: Expect Arcangelo to offer value in Travers 2023

When Arcangelo won the Belmont Stakes a few months ago, the public let him start at 7-1 odds. When Arcangelo makes his next start in the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday, he might not start at 7-1, but he almost certainly will end up as a value by the public given the other names guaranteed to attract bettors.

In the Travers, Arcangelo’s expected opponents include Forte, Mage and National Treasure. The first two names are the leaders of this division.

Forte enters this race off a win over Saudi Crown by a nose in the local Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) last month. But the winning performance is better than the narrow margin makes it seem, as Forte came into the stretch boxed in by Saudi Crown in front and Angel of Empire to his right.

The aggressive tactics used by Irad Ortiz Jr. to push out Angel of Empire and create enough room to move forward were questionable. Regardless, the win put a stamp on the fact that Forte remains the best 3-year-old. Even if Forte had lost the race, he clearly looked the best. 

Forte started in the Jim Dandy at 3-5 odds. In his past races, Forte has always been a popular bet. He competed in the Belmont as the 2-1 favorite, and before that he went off at 1-5 odds in his Florida Derby (G1) win. Expect the public to favor Forte again in the Travers, especially off a recent win where everyone saw the trouble he faced. 

Mage feels certain to attract attention as well given his status as the reigning Kentucky Derby champion. He won that race with a generous pace setup in front of him. Regardless, Derby winners always attract significant money for the rest of their careers since they won the most famous race.  

After the Kentucky Derby, Mage finished third in the Preakness Stakes as the 7-5 favorite thanks to the pacesetting tactics of National Treasure, and then he had an improved, closing runner-up finish to Geaux Rocket Ride in the Haskell Stakes (G1) as the mild 4-1 public second choice. The Bob Baffert-trained Arabian Knight took the money at even odds.  

Since Mage gave a strong effort in the Haskell with a good speed figure on different brands, expect the public to make him the second choice.

After Forte and Mage, Arcangelo fits as the third choice in Travers wagering.

Although the Bob Baffert-trained National Treasure might attract attention too as the Preakness champion, almost every pace handicapper saw he won the race with an uncontested lead and slow pace to help him. When National Treasure set a faster pace in the Belmont, he faded to sixth.

As the probable third choice in the Travers, Arcangelo offers value because he beat Forte in the Belmont by 1 1/2 lengths. Granted, Arcangelo was able save ground under Javier Castellano on the far turn while Irad Ortiz Jr. took Forte wide on the turn. The difference in the paths each horse took on the turn likely resulted in Arcangelo winning.

Still, Arcangelo beat Forte and will start at higher odds in the Travers. Forte had a chance to catch Arcangelo in the stretch, and he failed to come in time.

Arcangelo’s odds also will remain attractive because he does not run for a corporate trainer. The public trusts names such as Todd Pletcher, Brad Cox, Chad Brown and Bob Baffert in the most important Grade 1 races.

Arcangelo hails from the Jena Antonucci barn. Antonucci has always been a good trainer and she has been receiving positive media attention for the Belmont win, but she does not come into the national spotlight often. The public usually will hesitate to play a lower-profile trainer.  

Arcangelo should offer attractive odds in the Travers and probably the best of the big four. Although some Belmont winners go on to accomplish nothing for the rest of their careers, this winner gives off a different feeling. Expect him to contend for the win.