BC Classic: Evaluating Flightline and Epicenter final works

With the Breeders’ Cup arriving this week at Keeneland on Friday and Saturday, watching key final workouts might help round out the overall handicapping, assuming that bettors can navigate the long Breakfast at the Breeders’ Cup videos and find those workouts within the morning shows.

The Breeders’ Cup YouTube team did separate the final workouts for Flightline and Epicenter into their own videos, which is helpful.

Here are thoughts on those works from Flightline and Epicenter, as well as overall opinions on them heading into the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Flightline

One year ago, this blog went with Dr. Schivel in the Malibu Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita. At the time, the hype on Flightline felt a bit excessive, especially since he did not own any experience in graded-stakes races. Plus, Flightline was going to compete without Lasix for the first time. 

Then Flightline won the Malibu by 11 1/2 lengths under ease.

Today, Flightline is a three-time Grade 1 winner after also winning the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Pacific Classic (G1) over the summer. Although his schedule indicates fragility, Flightline is special and capable of a historical performance if he turns in his best effort this week.

In the Oct. 29 workout at Keeneland, Flightline put rest to any concern about handling the surface as he seemed to glide over it effortlessly.

After rounding the turn, Flightline switched leads seamlessly and continued on in the stretch with the same energy as on the far side. Flightline worked in almost a machine-like fashion through the finish line with fluid leg motion and no wasted energy. Again, he is likely special. 

Flightline galloped out strongly past the wire and into the next turn before the exercise rider throttled the speed down to complete an excellent final workout before the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday.

Although the time is not as important as how the horse moved, Flightline completed the five furlongs with a crowd watching him in 1:00.6.

If there are any negative effects of turning back in two months instead of three, Flightline does not show it. He should run well this week.

Epicenter

Ever since Epicenter won the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds last December, he has been a personal favorite because of his consistency and willingness to turn in nothing but quality races, even with troubled trips.

After staying at Fair Grounds through the early spring and winning the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2), Epicenter ran second in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, with the latter race presenting him significant traffic problems after a mediocre break. 

Two months later, Epicenter came back strong with an easy win in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2). One month later, Epicenter gave a career-best effort to capture the Travers Stakes (G1).

In Sunday morning’s workout, Epicenter is initially found in total darkness with a red light on his exercise rider’s cap. The screen started to brighten up as the Travers winner rounded the turn and switched leads seamlessly, much as Flightline did in his workout the day before. 

Epicenter continued to move smoothly in mid-stretch and then finished the work nicely under his own power. After the finish line, the rider tugged Epicenter slightly before they slowed down around the next turn.

According to the video, Epicenter finished the four furlongs in 50 4/5.

Even though Epicenter did work great, he failed to give the same impression as Flightline, who looked like he might turn in a Secretariat-like performance if allowed to truly run his best. While only a slight improvement off his Travers run would give Epicenter the Breeders’ Cup Classic in most "normal" years, he faces a difficult task this time.

Nevertheless, Flightline still could end up throwing in a clunker for whatever reason, especially since he is a fragile runner. If Flightline does not fire for any reason, the Classic probably will fall into Epicenter’s hooves.

From a wagering standpoint, it is better to assume Flightline will run his race. Epicenter is better off used in the second or third spot of an exacta or trifecta. Better yet, unless needed in multi-race wagers, the race is possibly one to skip given the high likelihood of Flightline winning at low 1-9 odds.