What I learned from the handicapping experts at Equestricon

During the course of Equestricon, the horse racing convention that kicked off Breeders' Cup week here in Louisville, a number of handicapping and betting related workshops featured well-known figures in horse racing.

Some of the information came across as more helpful than others. But even the most successful players are not the same in how they approach the game. So it's all worth hearing.

This write-up will comment on each of the workshops attended, and evaluate how useful the average bettor might find them if similar workshops appeared next year.

Tournament Handicapping Workshop: Mythical vs. Live Money

This discussion hosted by Scott Carson, Matt Bernier, Rich Nilsen and Jonathan Kinchen discussed the various strategies involved in playing horse racing tournaments. Some of the logic came across as common sense, but a point to bet favorites when there is no logical alternative and moving on to the next race came across as interesting. Casual horse players tend to avoid short prices.

In addition to tournament betting strategy, panelists also talked about entry strategy.

“I would make sure I handicap [the tournament races] first, and then I’d decide to put up my entry fee,” Carson said.

The four went on to talk about the difference between personal bets and contest bets, and the panelists revealed how their personal bets are usually a lot smaller.

Overall, it was a good workshop for those who enter tournaments. Even beginning players who never tried one may find the information useful for future use.

Once in a while, there are free mythical betting tournaments with NHC implications, such as the contest on Del Mar’s website every summer. In addition, more casual bettors can dip their toes into this world through contest sites like DerbyWars. Given the likelihood of most bettors eventually trying one or two tournaments, hopefully this workshop stays.

Betting With Your Eyes: Visual Handicapping

For a pace and speed figure handicapper, this is the workshop to attend. It certainly came packed with a lot of star power with personalities such as Acacia Courtney, Megan Devine, Gabby Gaudet, Michael Adolphson and Bruno DeJulio on board.

Throughout the hour, the five panelists discussed horse intelligence, the significance of bullet workouts, front bandages, the use of different shoes due to foot issues and how practicing visual analysis on a weekly basis can help greatly.

“Nothing beats just going to the paddock and looking at the horse,” Gaudet said.

Some horses do not look good on race day as a habit though, and they pointed this out too and used Shackleford, the 2012 Preakness Stakes winner, as an example.

Few casual players will pay attention to visual analysis, as speed figures and trainer statistics are the dominant forces in handicapping. But if someone can understand both paper and visual analysis in horse racing, he or she can get an edge in a difficult game.

Wagering Models: What You Need to Know

Michael Gramm and Peter Fornatale ran this workshop which focused on betting efficiency. Part of the talk involved the emergence of computers versus human bettors.

How do players make efficient bets? According to the hosts, bettors need to play on days when there is an advantage, such as when a pool is guaranteed for horizontals. 

“If there is any positive expectation out there, basically you have to play it,” Gramm said.

Later on, the panelists discussed finding approaches to the game not popular with the public. Right now, they claimed speed and pace handicapping are (unfortunately for this blog) popular. Finding angles bettors do not recognize can provide an another edge. 

Interestingly, one of them mentioned preferring fields not too large, as it brings up the possibility of randomness. Rather, a seven or eight horse field is more efficient.

The majority of horse players want larger fields, as the assumption is better value.

As for the discussion on computers, Grimm and Fornatale still believe a skilled handicapper can beat a computer, especially because fewer starts skew the statistics. At times, the computer will defeat the skilled handicapper. But a professional will win against a computer or anyone who plays casually more often than not.

The workshop ended with the two speakers pointing out how horse racing offers some of the highest takeout in sports gambling, giving other sports an advantage.

Wagering Insights from Gambling Horsemen

This workshop overlapped in ideas with the physical handicapping one the day before. A slight overlap is fine, as different people can still bring different ideas.

Sitting at the table were Pat Cummings, Joe Applebaum, Craig Bernick and Jack Wolfe.

One of the first points made was that trainers do not always know when a horse will win. Sometimes horses look poor in the mornings, but show up later.

Also, horses lose their form and value over time. For an owner such as Applebaum, it is difficult to accept losing money on a horse through a drop down the claiming ranks.

But he eventually learned to accept those situations.

“The competitive advantage of dropping … lets the horse feel good about himself," Applebaum said. “It does not matter what you paid for him. 

“Here is what he’s worth today, and you need to properly evaluate that.”

The lesson is applicable to handicappers as well.

Also, the importance of trainer intent is brought up. Bernick admitted that some fillies are mainly run to aim for blacktype to pad their resume in stakes races. 

The discussion felt slower-paced overall, but most of the information came across as useful since the majority of bettors are not owners. Getting away from speed figures and reading the intent of connections is important.