Epicenter, Jack Christopher are hard to assess in Breeders' Cup
With today’s horses becoming more fragile, the Saratoga meet has been a popular final stop for connections not wishing to overburden their runners with a final Breeders’ Cup prep in mid to late-September or October.
In terms of analysis though, the practice of not using a final prep race in mid-September or October can make handicapping 3-year-olds in the Breeders’ Cup more difficult. If a colt or filly is due for major improvement, the short layoff could make the change hard to see as the progression is not on paper.
Epicenter and Jack Christopher are two top 3-year-olds expected to compete in the Breeders’ Cup next month without a start since Saratoga. Below is early analysis for each colt.
Epicenter
Breeders’ Cup Classic
This consistent son of Not This Time has been impressive in both his wins and defeats throughout his long campaign this year.
In two starts at Saratoga over the summer, Epicenter easily won the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) by 1 ½ lengths under his own power, before going on to an impressive 5 ¼ victory in the Travers Stakes (G1).
In the Travers win, Epicenter earned a 112 Beyer Speed Figure and 129 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Those are big numbers for a top 3-year-old, and he might take another step forward in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Another positive is that Epicenter won the Jim Dandy off a short layoff, which makes the layoff less of a concern. He can probably handle it.
The looming concern though for Epicenter is not the layoff, but the presence of the talented Flightline, who is capable of dominating races in a way not seen in a long time. When he shows up. Flightline is a rare and special horse.
Even though Epicenter has never given up in any of his races, he might get discouraged on the far turn if Flightline turns in one of his monstrous efforts.
Then again, with normal growth and maturity as a developing 3-year-old, Epicenter could reach another level entirely and post numbers beyond the 112 Beyer Speed Figure and 129 on TimeformUS. But if Flightline shows up, perhaps the ceiling for this runner is second.
Jack Christopher
Breeders’ Cup Sprint or Dirt Mile
There are some negative points to Jack Christopher’s start at Saratoga.
When last seen, Jack Christopher took the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) at Saratoga by 1 ¼ lengths. Even without studying any speed figures or other numbers, it came off as one of his weaker performances though with Gunite gaining late.
Purely from visual standpoint, Jack Christopher failed to finish the race off as well as in some of his past dominating races. Nevertheless, Jack Christopher completed the seven furlongs in 1:21.15 with a 104 Beyer Speed Figure and also a lofty 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
Now to discuss the speed figures. Interestingly enough, TimeformUS gave Cody’s Wish "only" a 126 for winning the Forego Stakes (G1) in 1:20.95 a few races earlier in the card. Even with the slow pace adjustment taken away, Cody’s Wish still earned a raw 128 on TimeformUS for a final time that went faster than Jack Christopher.
Beyer gave a 112 to Cody's Wish, which is significantly faster than Jack Christopher's 104.
Yet, as stated above, nobody knows if Jack Christopher is due to explode with a lifetime best performance in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or Dirt Mile. The public cannot see a mid-September or October race from him, which leaves the lasting impression of Jack Christopher working hard to win.
It feels like bettors need to demand some mild value before trusting Jack Christopher completely in the Breeders' Cup, no matter which race he runs in. Depending on which horses show up in either the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or Dirt Mile, perhaps backers can get that kind of value.