Sararoga: How pace affected performance in the Forego

Gunite won the Forego Stakes (G1) last weekend at Saratoga after a comfortable pacesetting trip. But because of the slow pace scenario, horse players might want to give runner-up Elite Power another chance next time when he goes for a repeat in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or even take a shot on the third-place High Oak wherever he runs.

Although Pipeline initially outbroke Gunite, Gunite ended up taking over the lead soon afterward with Pipeline taking up the pressing position to his outside. But Gunite did not receive strong pressure to lead, as he posted fractions of 23.16 seconds, 46.20 and 1:09.67 for the seven-furlong race.

For a Grade 1-level field and the distance, those are slow fractions.

Meanwhile, Elite Power settled in third, 1 1/2 lengths behind the pair in front at the half. Synthesis traveled outside of Elite Power in fourth, and High Power trailed the field in fifth while only 3 1/2 lengths behind the leader.

Given 3 1/2 lengths separated the leader the trailing horse, observers could tell from a visual standpoint that the pace went at a slow clip. In most fast-pace scenarios, the separation from front to back is more significant because the trailing horses cannot keep up early.

TimeformUS Pace Projector also labeled every fraction in blue, with slow pace figures of 101, 97 and 111 awarded to Gunite for the three fractions.

Elite Power tried for a rail move on the far turn. But Gunite responded to the challenge from the champion and maintained a small lead over Elite Power throughout the stretch. Gunite never had to meet Elite Power face to face, as Elite Power failed to close the gap on him. 

After holding off Elite Power on the rail, Gunite finished first by 1 3/4 lengths over his unlucky opponent, but the pace scenario clearly affected the finish as it left Gunite with plenty of run in the stretch.

Elite Power even earned the higher TimeformUS Speed Figure with a 119, while Gunite earned a 117. Interestingly enough, High Oak also posted a 117 for his third-place finish, despite losing ground to Gunite in the stretch.

As Gunite held Elite Power at bay, High Oak passed a tired Pipeline for third. He never stopped running in the stretch though. High Oak went from four lengths back after six furlongs to 5 3/4 lengths behind when the race ended. But again, the slow pace affected High Oak's late punch, which was better than the final losing margin made it seem.   

High Oak has had a rough comeback trail, but he finally looks like a graded stakes-level horse again. If the connections decide to take a shot at the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or Dirt Mile, he will deserve attention depending on his odds and pace scenario. With the right pace scenario ahead of him, High Oak could surprise bettors at double-digit odds.

Elite Power might not offer the best value as the reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion going for a repeat. In his first two starts this year, he started at 3-5 in the True North Stakes (G2) and even money in the Vanderbilt Handicap (G1). But it depends on the field and pace.

If the Breeders’ Cup Sprint is filled with speed horses, then Elite Power is almost certain to close well and outkick the older horses at least. Whether Elite Power will handle the best 3-year-old sprinters is harder to tell.

Regardless, the point of this post is that Elite Power can turn the tables on Gunite in the Breeders’ Cup. Gunite ran well to hold off Elite Power in the stretch of the Forego, but in all likelihood he will not receive the same pace scenario in a race where every horse is being tuned to their best. Speed horses who are faster than Gunite will make their presence known.

In addition, High Oak needs only a bit more pace ahead of him to make noise in the Breeders' Cup. His recent improvement has been surprising. If bettors cannot use him on top, perhaps he can become useful as an underneath horse in the trifecta at double-digit odds.

As for Gunite, he likely will end up as a play-against in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint since he took the Forego with the slow pace. Expect Elite Power to bounce back, and take a long look at High Power if he shows up in a Breeders' Cup race as well. Both of them just need more pace.