Early Malibu preview: Taiba's class towers over probables

Given Taiba’s class in the Grade 1, $300,000 Malibu Stakes Monday at Santa Anita, it seems like a pointless exercise to play against him. The son of Gun Runner has made the next step into a fast and reliable Grade 1 performer, and there are few horses in his league on the probables list.

Earlier in the year though, I did hold some reservations against Taiba, especially with all the wagering attention he received in the Kentucky Derby off the Santa Anita Derby (G1) win over Messier and Forbidden Kingdom. Taiba’s speed figures were almost too good to believe as a handicapper. But even if Taiba did show the best speed figures on all brands, it did not make sense for him to handle a 20-horse field with his lack of experience, no matter what the figures said.

Taiba tried to chase the suicidal pace in the Kentucky Derby, but the effects of sitting near the leaders overcame him and he faded before the far turn. Given his inexperience, Taiba ran well. But he did not live up to the expectations placed on him, considering the public made him 5-1. 

Over the summer though, Taiba took the next step forward.

After his Derby flop, Taiba turned in a great effort in the Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth by finishing second by a head to Cyberknife, who had won the Arkansas Derby (G1) earlier in the year. Taiba then turned the tables on Cyberknife by defeating him in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) at Parx Racing. Taiba won by three lengths over Zandon as Cyberknife came belatedly for third after a bad start.

Zandon went on a losing streak after the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), but he provided a good measuring stick for Taiba’s level because of his third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, second in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and another third in the Travers Stakes (G1) as Epicenter won by 5 1/4 lengths.

If Taiba could beat the former Grade 1 winner and multiple graded stakes-placed Zandon by three lengths, then Taiba was performing at a fast level.

Taiba then tried the Breeders’ Cup Classic and finished a credible third as the superstar Flightline dominated the field by 8 1/4 lengths.      

No one else in the Malibu probables list offers those kinds of credentials. With that said, Slow Down Andy might catch the eye of some handicappers, considering he has been running against decent runners as well.

In his last two starts, Slow Down Andy ran third in the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) by 2 1/4 lengths to Defunded, a possible Dubai World Cup (G1) contender, and third in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile by 1 3/4 lengths to the popular Cody's Wish. Those are good efforts that show Slow Down Andy belongs in Grade 1s. 

Remember also that Slow Down Andy displayed promise last year by winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) over Messier in second. Months later, after a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Risen Star (G2) won by the future Kentucky Derby runner-up Epicenter, Slow Down Andy bounced back next time by winning the Sunland Derby (G3) following a grueling speed duel with Straight Up G.

Maybe Slow Down Andy finally has been moving toward the next level, where he becomes a regular threat in Grade 1 events such as the Malibu Stakes. The cutback to seven furlongs from a one-mile race also looks more gradual than Taiba’s cutback, as Taiba shortens up from the 10-furlong distance, and that race followed three nine-furlong races and the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby.

What do bettors do with Forbidden Kingdom or Messier if one of both of them decide to show up? Do either of them deserve consideration for the top spot or maybe underneath Taiba? In all likelihood, the answer is no. Both speed horses love to set the early pace. Assuming both horses run, they figure to cancel each other out unless one of them backs out.     

In April, Messier’s pressure proved too much for Forbidden Kingdom in the Santa Anita Derby, and Forbidden Kingdom folded badly to last by 14 1/2 lengths. But Messier is not exactly trustworthy either after folding to last at Keeneland in a Nov. 5 optional claiming race by 25 3/4 lengths. In fairness to Messier, the comments in the race chart indicate he bled and walked off.

Right now, the straight exacta in the Malibu is Taiba over Slow Down Andy. But the list of runners could change as the entry day becomes closer, and sometimes a more full view of the past performances can lead to different selections. Still, given Taiba’s class and tactical speed, he should win.