Does Justify's dominance signal a strong 3-year-old crop?

Deciding during Triple Crown season whether the current 3-year-old crop starring Justify is especially strong, as first thought, is difficult considering deciding just what criteria determines a class' strength is hard in the first place.

Many people use speed figures to compare this year’s sophomores to those in the past, but even within that measurement tool, there is an ongoing debate on if Justify is moving up or down across different past performance brands.

Others believe a dominant 3-year-old champion signals a strong crop. But what if the runners losing to the standout horse are simply weak? Then it would not be a strong crop, but rather one talented runner versus questionable competition.

On the point about using speed figures, there is an argument that Beyer Speed Figures as a whole are shrinking over time because of the methodology used, not that horses are actually running slower. For example, the slow-footed Giacomo was assigned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for winning the 2005 Kentucky Derby, while Justify earned a 103 in 2018.

Is Justify that close in quality to Giacomo? The John Shirreffs-trained colt finished third in the Preakness, and a disappointing seventh in the Belmont Stakes.

Justify regressed on the Beyer scale in the Preakness, scoring a 97. But as pointed out earlier on this blog, TimeformUS awarded Justify a 128, compared to the Derby where earned a 127. He improved by a point on their scale.

Hence, using speed figures to compare 3-year-old crops is a challenge because the speed figure makers do not always agree with each other.

As for Justify’s dominance, that could be interpreted either way.

While it is better to see a horse attempting the Triple Crown rather than watch the same group of 3-year-olds take turns beating each other, his streak of wins could also mean that the rest of the crop falls on the weak side.

To explain this, a horse who broke his maiden on Feb. 18 is undefeated and on the verge of capturing the Triple Crown. None of the more experienced and battle-tested 3-year-olds could beat him once. Bolt d’Oro, who won the FrontRunner (G1) so impressively last fall and dueled with McKinzie in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), could not beat a recent maiden winner in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

On the other hand, it could also speak to Justify’s freakish talent that he ascended so quickly in the 3-year-old racing scene in a short amount of time.

Good Magic and Audible would be considered Derby favorites in almost any normal year, and they both ran well in the race. In fact, perhaps a runner like Good Magic would be contesting the Triple Crown without Justify’s presence. He gave a winning effort in the Derby when finishing runner-up, and then only missed second in the Preakness because his jockey switched tactics trying to run early with Justify.  

Oddly, Good Magic and Audible only own one Beyer Speed Figure at 100 or higher between them. But again, it is hard to trust that the methodology is the same going back decades. Few horse racing fans will argue Giacomo is faster than those two runners.

Instead of arguing Good Magic and Audible lost to a horse who broke his maiden on Feb. 18, it could be said that Justify is so gifted that he held off those two. If Good Magic and Audible go on to win important summer and fall races, or eventually defeat older horses, then Justify likely defeated a good group in the Derby.

For the most part, the horses who finished behind Justify at Santa Anita are running well, too, as third-place finisher Core Beliefs ran second in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) a few weeks later, and fourth-place Instilled Regard ran a closing fourth in the Derby at longshot odds.

Santa Anita Derby runner-up Bolt d’Oro flopped at Churchill Downs, but his distance capabilities are debatable, and he will shorten up next in the one-mile Metropolitan Handicap (G1).  

Another way to rate this crop is to see how they fare against older horses.

Bolt d’Oro will get his chance soon in the Met Mile, while Justify, Good Magic, Audible and the rest will not face older horses until later, likely the Breeders' Cup. 

Most racing fans consider 2007's 3-year-old crop a strong one. When Curlin and Hard Spun finished 1-2 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, it reaffirmed the class’ strength since they dominated. Even Street Sense did not run too bad either, finishing fourth.

This year’s 3-year-old crop looks strong with some question marks, but it is just too early to say definitively where they stand in relation to history. Watch how the Derby also-rans fare moving forward, and whether or not Justify goes on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic against a mixed group of 3-year-olds and older horses.

Justify still could be a legend in the making.