Did jumping the tracks cost Justify in Preakness 2018?

While Justify won the Preakness Stakes and still holds a good chance at the Triple Crown when he competes June 9 in the 2018 Belmont Stakes, he left plenty to discuss in regards to a small margin of victory at Pimlico.

Well, it seems there's at least one external factor that possibly affected his run. Per BloodHorse's Jeremy Balan:

In a 1 3/16-mile race, the longer distance gives horses more time to recover from trouble. Even if horses stumble or get bumped out of the gate, they can get into a good-enough rhythm to put themselves back.

Because Justify initially jumped tracks, however, you could believe it changed how jockey Mike Smith rode the colt in the late stages of the race when crossing them again. Smith urged Justify to pass Good Magic in the lane, but once he put away his pace foe, he noticeably sat still on Justify even though Bravazo came flying late.

Private clocker Bruno De Julio explains:

The ironic thing is, Justify already wears a shadow roll, the blue piece of equipment on his head, which is supposed to help prevent horses from jumping. Many Baffert horses wear them. But a shadow roll is not going to stop a horse from seeing everything.

In my opinion, the incident did not likely affect his race to an extreme. Yes, it made the beginning awkward and forced Justify to switch leads one or two more times, but he recovered quickly.

Justify posted a 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure, so he exceeded his Derby run by one point, which goes against people saying he regressed. In addition, Bravazo scored a 126 and Tenfold a 125, so those two simply moved up from their previous races.

If Justify made the mistake late in the race, then perhaps he would lose.

Remember in 1990, Dayjur jumped a shadow late in his battle against Safely Kept down the lane in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1), which allowed the filly to claim the win. That happened close to the finish line, giving no chance for Dayjur to recover. In fact, he jumped twice.

It is scary to think: If jumping the tracks did cost Justify a significant amount of lengths, then he could be considered essentially invincible without incident.

It will not be an easy task to defeat Justify next out, especially if he does not make any unusual jumps at Belmont Park. Already, he's won two legs of the Triple Crown on a sloppy track. If he gets a fast surface, there is less of a chance that people walking across the track can affect the race.

But this instance, along with Justify's small margin of victory, will keep the conversation going until the Belmont: Is this horse ready to make racing history?