How good is Smile Happy’s résumé going into Risen Star?

With the early part of the Kentucky Derby trail over, the points race schedule moves past all but one of the prep season races and into the championship series on Saturday with the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds.

One horse to take seriously is Smile Happy, the winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last November at Churchill Downs. Three other horses from the race, Classic Causeway, White Abarrio and Call Me Midnight, went on to win later Derby prep season races and flatter Smile Happy’s earlier win in the process.

But some of the speed figures for those three recent Derby prep winners make them appear slow, depending on the past performances used. Even Smile Happy’s speed figure for his stakes win is not fast. Does it matter?

First, here are the numbers.

As covered on this blog a few days ago, Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up Classic Causeway won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) last weekend in a visually impressive fashion. He shows a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 88 Beyer Speed Figure for the 3 3/4-length win over the closing Shipsational.

Classic Causeway’s 113 is not terrible, as it roughly equals a 93 in Beyer terms since there is an approximately 20-point scale difference. Because Beyer only gave an 88, there is probably a small disagreement between the two speed-figure makers.  

Third-place finisher White Abarrio went on to capture the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream with a 106 on TimeformUS and 97 Beyer Speed Figure thanks to his early speed and a poor break from his expected pace opponent Simplification.

TimeformUS and Beyer disagreed by a big margin, as a 106 on TimeformUS roughly equals 86 in Beyer terms if accounting for the scale difference. Given an approximate 86 Beyer is 11 points below the official 97 Beyer Figure, TimeformUS and Beyer gave two wildly different views.

Using the ho-hum 106 on TimeformUS, White Abarrio ran a slow speed figure in the Holy Bull. White Abarrio backers who trust Beyer can feel optimistic about the 97. This is a confusing race for speed figures.

Call Me Midnight, seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club, won the Lecomte Stakes (G3) in his next start with a nice closing move after taking advantage of a fast pace. He shows a 108 on TimeformUS and 88 Beyer Figure, which means the two sides match when accounting for the scale difference.

Unfortunately, both of those figures fall closer to the ho-hum side. Because of the fast pace, TimeformUS awarded Epicenter the high Lecomte speed figure with a 112. Even though he closed into a slow pace, Call Me Midnight’s 108 was not adjusted in either direction. 

Smile Happy won the Kentucky Jockey Club by 3 1/4 lengths with a sweeping move into a slow pace, while earning a 108 on TimeformUS and 90 Beyer Speed Figure. Two points (when accounting for scale) is almost the same.

For a developing 2-year-old in late November, both of those numbers sound great. Smile Happy made only his second career start in the Kentucky Jockey Club and easily went by a more seasoned colt in Classic Causeway.

As for some of the slower figures shown by Smile Happy’s beaten opponents in their recent prep race wins, the differences between the speed figures given by TimeformUS and Beyer make it hard to label those races fast or slow without some doubt. 

Classic Causeway’s recent TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Sam F. Davis looks acceptable, but he is a touch slow on Beyer Speed Figures.

White Abarrio appears alarmingly slow when using TimeformUS to analyze the Holy Bull, but he seems plenty fast on Beyer Figures.

Only Call Me Midnight seems ho-hum on both TimeformUS and Beyer in his Lecomte win. Then again, he was seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Classic Causeway and White Abarrio were expected to run faster than him in their next starts.

All of the comparative analysis between the different speed figures might sound confusing. The only solution is to become a better visual handicapper and emphasize speed figures a bit less. Yes, speed figures are a helpful tool in race analysis. An attachment to figures can prove costly too.

In all likelihood, Smile Happy beat a nice group in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and he beat them as an inexperienced colt with only one previous start in a maiden race. Only good horses capture a Grade 2 race in their second start.

Classic Causeway, White Abarrio and Call Me Midnight all remain in the mix as legitimate threats in their next races on the trail too. If Classic Causeway and White Abarrio can step forward, their speed would help at Churchill Downs.

Whether he wins or loses, expect Smile Happy to run a strong race in his third start this week. He has the raw talent necessary to become any kind of horse as times goes on.