Monday play: Determinedly is worth single in Gun Runner

Determinedly makes his first try against dirt stakes horses in the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds on Monday after an impressive maiden win at Churchill Downs. He does offer a few questions, but he might present a fair enough price for bettors.

Here is a more detailed explanation of why Determinedly is the selection plus an idea for a daily double linking Determinedly to a filly making her overall stakes debut in the $100,000 Untapable Stakes.

Fair Grounds race 11: Gun Runner

Determinedly lacks dirt-stakes experience and owns no route wins. However, he has shown plenty of turf-routing experience, including a fourth-place finish in the With Anticipation (G3) at Saratoga in August and one runner-up finish at the same track.

Last month Determinedly cut back in distance to seven furlongs and made the switch back to dirt in a Keeneland maiden race on the Breeders’ Cup undercard. Unfortunately he ended up competing against a possible monster in Arabian Knight, who won by a smashing 7 1/4 lengths over Determinedly.

Later in the month Determinedly backed up the quality of the Arabian Knight debut race by breaking his maiden by the same 7 1/4-length margin in a different seven-furlong, maiden race at Churchill Downs.

Determinedly possesses some ability. Whether he can handle the 1 1/16-mile distance remains a question, since he did lose three times in turf routes. But at least Determinedly did not finish worse than fourth in those starts, and the losing margins always were within range. 

His main opponents in this race are Jace’s Road and Hayes Strike, the third- and fourth-place finishers from the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in September.

Jace’s Road threw a clunker in the Street Sense Stakes over slop in his most recent start. The oddsmaker listed him as the mild, 3-1 favorite. If that was accurate, though, he would feel underlaid given the double-digit loss last time, even if the slop was a viable excuse for folding badly.

Hayes Strike closed well for third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), but his recent lack of speed looks like a real concern in this spot. 

Expect Luis Saez on Determinedly to adjust to the expected, slow-pace scenario and hustle his mount out of the gate. Saez rides more aggressively than most jockeys, and that makes him reliable to bet on.

At 5-2 or higher, Determinedly is the selection.  

Win: 3 (at 5-2 or higher)

Double: 3 / 4,6

Fair Grounds race 12: Untapable

After two losses at Saratoga, Vahva broke her maiden in a seven-furlong Churchill Downs maiden race on Nov. 26 by three lengths with a 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which put her in the mix of top fillies here.

Vahva showed a field-high 92 Brisnet Speed Rating for the win. TimeformUS remains the preferred past performances on this blog, but it sometimes helps to see other figures.

Vahva owns tactical speed and should sit a few lengths behind the leaders, which includes a run-off pacesetter in All About Me and possibly a presser or two trying to keep up with the expected leader. Saez should give Vahva a great stalking trip behind them, especially since the pair start from the ideal 4 post and can adjust to how the break unfolds.

Can Vahva stretch out to the one-mile-and-70-yard distance? The dam Holiday Soiree was a successful sprinter, but she also is a half-sister to Marquee Prince, a turf miler who won up to 1 1/16 miles. In addition, no one will question Vahva’s sire Gun Runner as a route influence.

For a second pick The Alys Look deserves a look after breaking her maiden locally by seven lengths Dec. 1 after setting the pace. She might need to adjust into a stalking position in this faster pace scenario.

The Alys Look won at the same distance of this race, and that is an added plus. She also earned a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure and an 84 Brisnet Speed Rating.

Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux make for a familiar and successful combination.

Vahva is the top selection, but The Alys Look is usable alongside her.