Why Derma Sotogake is not a wise bet in Breeders' Cup Classic

Although his presence is welcome, horseplayers might want to avoid risking money on the Japan-based shipper Derma Sotogake in the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita on Nov. 4. He will enter this difficult race with serious flaws from a betting standpoint.

For example, the colt has not run since the Kentucky Derby in May, and that probably is the biggest hurdle toward trusting him with a bet. 

Every horse pointing toward the Breeders' Cup Classic will bring either their best form or something close to it. Typically, horses do not show their best form without a regular racing schedule. When a horse returns off a layoff beyond two or three months, in most cases it takes time to round back into form with warm-up races.

Derma Sotogake has not made a start since he ran sixth in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, which means he will compete in the Breeders’ Cup Classic without a single other race in that six-month period between the Derby and Breeders' Cup. Because of a setback related to a hoof problem, he was not able to run in the Grade 2 Nippon TV Hai on Sept. 27.   

Considering that the connections gave Derma Sotogake the green light for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the problem with his hoof is probably minor. Nevertheless, the question of fitness remains for this colt. Every other horse entering the race will display one race since August, and he shows none since May.

Because of the extended layoff alone, Derma Sotogake is likely a toss from most tickets, especially from the top position. To add a second point, handicappers should also rethink the quality of his overall form and especially go over his big Dubai win a second time.

Derma Sotogake put in a decent effort in the Kentucky Derby. He broke slowly and soon became caught behind horses in the stampede toward the first turn. But in retrospect, the slow start kept him away from the blazing early pace and allowed him to make a move later on. 

On the approach to the far turn, Derma Sotogake began to pass a few horses and put himself in striking position. But it was clear Derma Sotogake was struggling to move forward as the eventual winner Mage outran him to his right and took the ideal spot just outside of Hit Show.

From that point, Derma Sotogake ran evenly in the stretch to hold sixth. Although he gave a good effort, the trouble he faced was overstated.

Before the Kentucky Derby, Derma Sotogake won the overseas UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan by a clear 5 1/2 lengths over Dura Erede in second. At the time, it felt like an impressive win, and most of the speed figure makers indicated he turned in a fast race relative to the normal standard.

On second inspection of his win, some of the horses behind Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby were not great, based on their form afterward.

The runner-up Dura Erede went back to Japan and lost his jockey in the Tokyo Yushun (G1). After that race, he finished 10th in the Takarazuka Kinen (G1) and eighth in the Asahi Hai St Lite Kinen (G2).

Also, the fifth-place Go Soldier Go transferred to America only to finish a disappointing fifth in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont and sixth in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs under Todd Pletcher. Based on those two races, Go Soldier Go was an allowance-level runner.

Besides the layoff and class question, Derma Sotogake figures to attract more wagering dollars than he deserves, considering the question marks.

Any time a Japan-based runner makes a start in North America, most of the racing media treats him well and a fan following develops. Most horses with a fan following tend to become a bit underlaid in wagering.

In addition, many Derby also-rans become overbet for the rest of their careers because the Kentucky Derby is seen in their running lines. Many bettors love to side with a familiar horse from the most famous race in America, and they might go out of their way to excuse the red flags.   

From a fan standpoint, it is great to see Derma Sotogake return to America and compete in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Whenever an international horse runs in this race, it adds flavor and intrigue. As shown by the 1993 Classic when Arcangues won at Santa Anita, anything can happen.

But using common handicapping logic, Derma Sotogake seems like a poor bet in the Breeders’ Cup. At a minimum, the son of Mind Your Biscuits does not deserve a spot in the top slot of tickets.