Derby analysis: Is Zandon due for a Country House trip?

Even though a major upset is unlikely in this edition of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, there are some connections between the 65-1 Country House in 2019 and Zandon, the probable second or third choice this year.

For one, both runners are closers on paper. Country House ran as a deep closer in all three of his points races leading up to the Kentucky Derby, while Zandon also came from the rear in his two prep races this year.

The second connection between Country House and Zandon is that Flavien Prat rode Country House to victory via disqualification in 2019, and he is the scheduled rider for Zandon after the pair won the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).

Because the points-era Kentucky Derby favors speed, it helps for a closer to adjust to the pace scenario and run closer to the pace than usual. If a deep closer could show more tactical speed, it would eliminate some of the traffic and make less work for the stretch.   

Prat is a great choice to pilot Zandon because he can bring out his speed.

When Prat rode Country House, he unexpectedly settled closer to the pace than expected after letting Bodexpress cross over him out of the gate. Throughout the opening quarter and half-mile, Country House traveled in ninth and no farther than eight lengths off the leader.

Given the Kentucky Derby field size, running in ninth takes speed. Most handicappers thought Country House would lag toward the rear. But with Prat on board, Country House had more speed than 11 other horses.  

Granted, Country House handled the sealed slop track quite well. Perhaps he relished the track and moved up in position because of his better footing.

But Prat is one of the smartest riders in the country. Even if he was only along for the ride on Country House, the experience of sitting near the pace with a supposed deep closer and rolling into contention on the far turn with a chance to win outright will stick in his memory this week.

From watching the replay, Prat helped navigate Country House through a tight spot between Improbable and Vekoma before rallying outside Bodexpress and hitting the top of the stretch almost tied for the lead.

Zandon ran as a deep closer in his two points races this year, but some debate exists over whether that is his true running style. Last December, Zandon was a stalker in the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct before finishing second to Mo Donegal after a tough battle in the stretch.

Before that, Zandon also made use of stalking tactics last October in his career debut at Belmont. He was only two lengths off the leader in a six-furlong sprint. With that kind of speed, he should own the capability to sit closer in a 10-furlong race.

Zandon came from the rear in the Risen Star (G2), but he also broke in the air at the start. Then in the Blue Grass Stakes, Prat tried to encourage Zandon coming out of the gate. He broke OK and had momentum heading into the first turn, but the early traffic forced Prat’s hand and Zandon settled near the back.

Another factor that might help Prat and Zandon is drawing an outside post, as Country House had the second-widest post in 2019 next to Bodexpress. If Prat can keep Zandon clear of the stampede, he can head into the first turn with enough momentum to settle into the same spot as Country House.

No matter how well a jockey rides his mount, the horse still needs the right ability and talent to win. Country House could not pass Maximum Security late, which means he became lucky when Maximum Security came out on the far turn and caused his own disqualification. 

Luckily for Prat, Zandon is a better horse on paper than Country House. As long as Zandon settles in mid-pack or better, he can win the Kentucky Derby.