Derby 2022: Pace meltdown is unlikely without run-off speed

As stated earlier on this blog, a pace meltdown in the 148th Kentucky Derby on May 7 is unlikely because of the points system. In addition, the 20-horse field makes it hard for closers to move effectively without traffic problems.

Assuming Early Voting defects, the race also lacks a "run-off" type of speed horse who can force the other speed types to run faster. A pace collapse is more likely when a run-off speed horse in the same vein as Forbidden Kingdom or Early Voting is present to lure the other speed.

In 2013, Palace Malice became the run-off Derby pacesetter by the first turn as his added blinkers likely resulted in excess early speed. 

By the half-mile point, Palace Malice led by three lengths. 

Palace Malice forced the other speed horses to run too fast through the backside and fold. Eventually, the deep closer Orb took advantage of the wicked pace scenario and mowed them down in the stretch run.

Why is Early Voting a threat to cause the same kind of pace collapse? If he repeats the way he ran in the opening half of the Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct in February, he might resemble Palace Malice in 2013.

Early Voting ran a blazing opening half in the Withers Stakes by opening with TimeformUS Pace Figures of 151 and 151. He also had a notable two-length separation from the field by the half-mile. Early Voting put away his weaker pace opponents and ended up winning. 

What if Early Voting tried to open up in the same way with the same blitzing pace figures in the Kentucky Derby, while surrounded by pressure from Classic Causeway, Messier and Epicenter? The pace might collapse if he forces those types of horses to run faster than ideal early. 

If trainer Chad Brown makes a last-minute decision to enter the Kentucky Derby with Early Voting, he could promote a pace collapse with a return to his aggressive style and pace figures in the Withers. As of this writing, Brown has kept Early Voting in New York.

No other Derby speed horse has shown the same kind of eagerness to separate from the field as Early Voting in the Withers.

Classic Causeway wants the lead, but he is not a run-off type of pacesetter. In fact, Classic Causeway made use of stalking tactics in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs to finish second behind the closing Smile Happy. There is no reason for him to go crazy early. 

Simplification has shown the capability to change styles too. Two starts ago, he came from mid-pack to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) by 3 1/2 lengths. Given that he can close effectively and win a graded stakes race, why would the jockey rush this colt to the front? With that question in mind, Simplification is unlikely to cause a pace meltdown. 

What about the rest of the Derby speed horses?

Summer Is Tomorrow has unknown pace figures because he is based at Meydan in Dubai. Just from a visual standpoint after watching the UAE Derby (G2), he does not give the impression of an insane speed type.

Epicenter set a fast pace in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) with opening pace figures of 144 and 139 before losing by a head to Call Me Midnight. However, his newfound versatility in the Louisiana Derby (G2) means there are options. Epicenter can set the pace, press or stalk the leaders.

Messier set the pace under pressure in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita before putting away Cabo Spirit and Sir London and winning by 15 lengths. He also went after the run-off speed horse Forbidden Kingdom in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and put him away on the far turn before getting caught by his stablemate Taiba late.

Surprisingly, though, Messier’s TimeformUS Pace Figures top out at only 132. Maybe the small fields give the illusion of fast-paced prep races.

Zozos set the pace in the Louisiana Derby (G2), but he held only about a half-length advantage over Pioneer of Medina at the half-mile point. His initial pace figures of 117 and 117 look relatively slow compared with the other expected Derby speed runners. 

If Early Voting competed in the Kentucky Derby and went for broke by gunning for the lead at all costs, he might trigger a pace meltdown. His aggressive tactics could result in the other speed horses working harder.

Otherwise, the Derby pace looks moderate. The pace will be quick enough to fit the category of fast for 1 1/4 miles. But if anyone out there is hoping for a repeat of the 2013 Kentucky Derby pace meltdown, that is unlikely, and less probable if Early Voting's connections decide to skip.