Kentucky Derby 2020: Three longshots to use underneath
After discussing the horses most probable to win the 2020 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs last week, today is a good time to discuss longshots to consider underneath.
This edition of the Derby does not feel like a “Giacomo year” on top, but the bottom slots are debatable.
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Because of the 1 1/4-mile distance and 20-horse field, the underneath positions are more open to surprises. In many cases, Derby “bombs” that finish underneath pick off tired horses in the stretch to secure their superfecta finish. In this analysis, there are two midpack types and one deep closer to discuss.
More than three horses are capable of hitting the Top 4, but these three stand out because of their potential to move forward on Sept. 5.
Attachment Rate ran promising races earlier in the year, including a third-place finish in the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct and a runner-up finish to Dr Post in the Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream Park. In the latter race, failing to switch leads cost him the race.
Then, Attachment Rate did not switch leads again in his fourth-place finish in the local Matt Winn Stakes (G3). He held a good position and failed to carry on with the top trio of Maxfield, Ny Traffic and Pneumatic.
Attachment Rate finally made the lead switch in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), although he only ran a well-beaten fifth behind Art Collector.
In the Ellis Park Derby, Attachment Rate made the switch again and leapt forward in terms of performance while finishing second to Art Collector by 3 1/4 lengths. TimeformUS gave him a career-high 120 speed figure.
Even with the new lead switch ability, Attachment Rate does not seem probable to win the Kentucky Derby. However, he is moving forward and switching leads possibly gives him a second wind late in a 1 1/4-mile race. If looking for a double-digit option to include underneath with enough speed to sit in mid-pack early, Attachment Rate is the horse.
Earlier in the year, this colt was capable of running in a mid-pack position. From fourth, he fought against a wide trip for a runner-up in the second division Risen Star Stakes (G2).
After that promising effort, for some reason the connections made Major Fed a deep closer. He came from 14th to finish a closing fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2), and two starts later went from ninth in the Indiana Derby (G3) to pick up second place behind Shared Sense.
In between those starts, he also began in seventh in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3), before fading late for a dismal 10th. In fairness, a wide trip wiped him out early. Cross out the Matt Winn clunker.
As a come-from-the-clouds bomber in the Kentucky Derby, he still can hit the board with a good post position and some luck in terms of traffic. He becomes even more dangerous if he can secure a mid-pack position and not give up several lengths, but this is a tough race to switch back.
His career-high 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure seems low. But that is a number Major Fed can improve upon, especially if a fast pace sets up his late rally.
In any case, Major Fed is trading at about 100-1 overseas. In the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager, his odds went up to a generous 79-1.
Given his expected odds of 50-1 or higher, it is worth throwing him in.
Like Attachment Rate, Caracaro is a stalker or mid-pack type.
He gave a solid effort to finish second in the Travers Stakes (G1) after traveling in fifth in the early stages. Caracaro tried hard at the top of the stretch to catch the leader, but Tiz the Law ran them off their feet with a memorable performance.
But put Caracaro’s effort in perspective.
This colt made only his fourth career start in the Travers, giving him a high ceiling in terms of potential. The public has not seen enough of Caracaro to make a final judgement on how good he can become.
He also makes his third career start off the bench and could still move forward. Horses peak in either their second or third starts off the bench.
Plus, his 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him competitive. In a fair race, he cannot beat Tiz the Law. However, a slight move forward to a 122 or 123 on the TimeformUS scale figures to put him in the trifecta.
Think about the horses that Caracaro beat in the Travers, such as Max Player, Country Grammer and Uncle Chuck. Max Player had no real excuse for not passing Caracaro late. Caracaro beat him by two lengths.
Caracaro bettors also can feel better knowing the horse is capable of sitting in mid-pack or closer rather than losing double-digit lengths as Major Fed might end up doing.
If one of the favorites fire, Caracaro probably will not win. But off his Travers effort, he can step forward and make enough of a move to hit the trifecta again.