Kentucky Derby 2020: Constructing a backwheel key

Deciding the right wagering strategy is perhaps the most difficult part of the Kentucky Derby. With upwards of 20 horses and a multitude of options, casual bettors might become lost thinking about longer bets and revert back to the standard win, place or show wagers.

Other horseplayers may try an exacta, trifecta or superfecta, and a good number of them will choose one horse to key on top and spread underneath, creating what is called a wheel. The structure of those tickets resemble a basic pyramid with a wide base.

The majority of players know how to structure an exacta, trifecta or superfecta wheel with the typical pyramid structure. But this post aims to discuss the backwheel key, which puts the wide part in the middle, and why it is useful.

Also, the point of this example is to focus more on structure rather than the picks. Do not take this post as the final play (although it might be).

To start off, a good situation for a backwheel key is when the race contains three or more win contenders relatively close in ability.

For example, Tiz the Law, Art Collector and Honor A. P. were listed as the top three Derby contenders on this blog. The debate over how much better Tiz the Law looks in comparison to those two horses goes on, but the speed figures put them close together. In this example, those three win contenders take the top slot of this Derby trifecta backwheel key.

1^st – Tiz the Law, Art Collector, Honor A. P.

2^nd  

3^rd

For now, the second and third slots remain blank.

Once it is decided that the top slot is up for grabs between three or more horses close in ability, then the bettor could want to go for a midpack or closer type to key in the third slot.

Why a midpack runner or closer?

The underneath Derby slots often feature one longshot bomb, and in many cases the horse is a closer who picked off tired horses. For example, think about Lookin at Lee’s runner-up finish at 33-1 to Always Dreaming in 2017, or for superfecta players, Instilled Regard’s closing fourth at 85-1 in the 2018 edition. Those closers lit up the board.

Even last year, Country House at 65-1 rallied from midpack to cross the wire second, before a disqualification moved him into the winner’s spot. In that same race, Code of Honor also closed from midpack to cross the wire third at 14-1, before moving up to second via disqualification.

A week ago in this space, Attachment Rate and Major Fed were listed as possible longshots to include underneath. For the purposes of this example, Major Fed is the backwheel key. He could go off at 40-1 or higher.

1^st – Tiz the Law, Art Collector, Honor A. P.

2^nd

3^rd – Major Fed

The second slot is more open. Obviously, Tiz the Law, Art Collector and Honor A. P. fit in that slot too, and some bettors might feel satisfied with repeating the top slot and leaving it alone after that.

However, there are modestly talented stalkers or midpack types that fit in the runner-up position too without posing a major win threat. Bettors might want to include the expected pacesetter in the second slot as well, figuring he might pull a Bodemeister and lead until the last few strides. This part of the Derby trifecta backwheel requires some time.

King Guillermo and Ny Traffic figure to receive good trips stalking the speed up close. Authentic projects to set the pace and hold on for as long as possible, but the speed probably weakens him enough to lose.

For the purposes of this example, all three of them earn a spot in the second slot of the trifecta backwheel key.

1^st – Tiz the Law, Art Collector, Honor A. P.

2^nd – Tiz the Law, Art Collector, Honor A. P., King Guillermo, Ny Traffic, Authentic

3^rd – Major Fed

For a $1 trifecta backwheel, that is a $15 ticket.

What if Major Fed finishes second? If the bettor is concerned with that scenario, then he can back it up with an exacta backwheel. Given his projected odds, the ticket will still pay a healthy amount.  

1^st – Tiz the Law, Art Collector, Honor A. P.

2^nd – Major Fed

If bettors think Major Fed cannot reach second, but third or fourth is in play, then a superfecta backwheel key along with the trifecta makes more sense. But the third slot of the superfecta backwheel could become more complicated as it brings more horses into play. It all depends on the budget and how much the bettor wants to spend.

For the purposes of speeding up this example, the same horses in the second slot will be used. The structure should be clear by now anyway.

1^st – Tiz the Law, Art Collector, Honor A. P.

2^nd – Tiz the Law, Art Collector, Honor A. P., King Guillermo, Ny Traffic, Authentic

3^rd – Tiz the Law, Art Collector, Honor A. P., King Guillermo, Ny Traffic, Authentic

4^th – Major Fed

Just add more horses in the third slot if six options does not feel safe.

Remember that 10-cent superfectas are available. A Derby superfecta backwheel key is not as expensive as it was previously.

Bettors who do not believe in Major Fed or the options can substitute other horses in those slots. The main point is to discuss how to construct the backwheel key and why some bettors use this structure, rather than to make a final ticket without the draw available.

The backwheel key structure might seem "backwards" at first, but it works in certain situations where the race features more than one strong contender and the horseplayer cannot decide on the winner. To be clear, this is not a proper bet for those who think Tiz the Law is several lengths ahead, but rather for those who see multiple win options.

For those who think the top slot is up for grabs and cannot quite decide on the winner, think about using a longshot in a backwheel key.