Del Mar opening day picks for four key races
Del Mar’s fantastic summer meet opens again on Wednesday, and bettors will be lined up to take advantage of quality fields, including the traditional Oceanside Stakes going a mile on turf. As usual at this track, the fields are evenly matched.
TVG is offering a Money Back Special on opening day, when a single $10 win bet will result in a refund if your horse finishes second or third. This promotion will apply to Races 5, 7 and 8 at Del Mar, so the analysis below will cover those events, and one extra race in between.
Del Mar Race 5 – Arms Runner (9/2)
No horse in this field has faced tougher competition in his last two starts than Arms Runner.
The half brother to Calculator finished a good fourth against multiple graded
stakes winner Sharp Samurai last time in an optional claimer. Two starts ago,
he ran eighth in the Shoemaker Mile (G1), but only lost by a little over three lengths
with a 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Against weaker horses, his closing kick should be
effective.
Del Mar Race 6 – Regulate (5-1)
This race is not part of the promotion, but it is a chance to pick apart the two Bob Baffert entries. Regulate is chosen because he looked like a new horse at Los Alamitos after the gelding operation. He went wide on both turns and still kicked in late for the win, earning a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Since then, he turned in a snappy 47 2/5 bullet workout, the best out of 64 other horses on July 13. He could be on the upswing.
In contrast, Show Me Da Lute is coming off a 318-day layoff. Baffert has worked him steadily since April 23, yet waited until now to bring him back. Maybe he just needed more works to shake off the rust. However, he lost off a 190-day layoff in the past, so this Baffert entry is less trustworthy.
Del Mar Race 7 – Angel Alessandra (5-1)
To be honest, 2-year-old maiden races are the kind of spots where bettors need to read the live odds. In this situation, a drop in price is positive because it means “they” know something. Nevertheless, the first-timer Angel Alessandra comes from the Peter Miller barn, and Miller is known to point his horses toward the meet. The filly's dam, High Button Shoes, made all 13 starts in sprints, signaling she should like five furlongs, too. Plus, there are a few bullet workouts on record. Watch the odds carefully.
Del Mar Race 8 – Heartfullofstars (12-1)
The Oceanside is tough every year, and this edition is no different. Heartfullofstars warrants a look as a stalker or closer in a race filled with speed. He finished third in a pair of downhill turf sprints, but it may be a different story in a traditional route. He also broke his maiden in a one-mile dirt race, which shows the extra distance is fine. The TVG promotion favors closers because they just need to pick off enough horses for third. It does not hurt that Phil D’Amato trains, as he is always sharp on this circuit.