Counterpoint: Is Forte still the right Derby horse to bet?

Despite capturing the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park and winning his fifth race in a row, Forte might not end up as a single on some bettors’ Kentucky Derby tickets because he did not blow away the field. Even with the wide post compromising Forte's position, the visual of Mage almost holding on in the stretch stuck with a few observers.  

Forte brings up an interesting dilemma for Derby bettors, as he does not offer any speed-figure advantage and he arguably beat up on weaker horses in Florida. But his will to win makes him respectable, and relying solely on figures can lead to problems.

Last fall, when Forte took the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 1 1/2 lengths over the previous division leader Cave Rock, he earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form.  

When Forte returned and captured the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream, he won easily by 4 1/2 lengths and earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. Then, Forte started in the Florida Derby (G1) last weekend and prevailed by only one length after settling in a position farther back and making a wide move on the turn. He earned only a 95 Beyer this time.

In that same three-race span dating back to the Breeders’ Cup, Forte also earned 117, 118 and 116 TimeformUS Speed Figures.

Forte's 100 Beyer Speed Figure and 118 on TimeformUS both sound respectable. But he heads into the Kentucky Derby as the favorite without owning the highest dirt speed figure outright. Practical Move at Santa Anita ran a 100 Beyer Speed Figure and 119 on TimeformUS when he won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) in early March.

Yet, most bettors will side with Forte rather than Practical Move, which makes Forte sound underlaid, especially if Practical Move ends up backing up those numbers in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on Saturday. Bettors must accept Forte as the probable Derby favorite, even though one horse has caught up if they give the speed figures heavy weight.

Another negative point is that if one uses Rocket Can as a measuring stick, Forte beat horses of questionable quality in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.

Rocket Can finished second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth after proving no match for him in the stretch. Rather than tackle Forte again, Bill Mott shipped Rocket Can to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby (G1) and he started as the favorite likely because of his runner-up to Forte and respectable speed figure. 

But Rocket Can struggled to make the same bid, and he ended up running a non-threatening fourth as Angel of Empire opened up by 4 1/4 lengths. If Angel of Empire could beat Rocket Can by the same margin Forte did in the Fountain the Youth, then it calls into question who Forte beat at Gulfstream and whether it makes sense to take low odds on him.

On the plus side, Forte keeps winning graded-stakes races, with four of the five wins in his winning streak coming in Grade 1 races. Sometimes horses find a way to rise to each occasion, and Forte is possibly one of them with an impressive six wins in seven starts.   

Speed figures make it easier for handicappers to compare final times, but they do not measure heart or a horse’s will to cross the wire first. At some point, the will to beat other horses needs to weigh more than the numbers or margins because the point is to pick the winner.

In addition, Practical Joke's San Felipe effort looks like an outlier in his past performances. Handicappers might want to wait to see whether he backs up the high figures given by the Beyer Speed Figure team and TimeformUS in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) or if he regresses there. 

Without Practical Joke in the picture, how does Forte stand in terms of speed figures? Two Phil’s earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure on synthetic when he won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). When comparing dirt speed figures, Forte’s 98 Beyer and 118 on TimeformUS appear solid enough.

Remember that speed figures act as a tool to compare final times. Beyers and TimeformUS figures do not give extra points for a wide or rough trip, as the handicapper must ultimately decide how that affected the overall run and whether the time or figure regressed because of the trip.

With a wide post in the Florida Derby, Forte under Irad Ortiz Jr. accepted a position near the back in order to negate the ground loss on the first turn. After using energy to move forward through the field, Forte made the widest move on the far turn when he went after Mage. Those factors made a difference and resulted in a smaller margin.

It only felt logical for Forte to earn a slower Beyer in the Florida Derby than in the Fountain of Youth because the trip felt less than optimal. In his Fountain of Youth win, Forte took advantage of a great trip where he sat close to the leaders and tipped out without needing to make up ground from the rear. But the wide post affected his run last weekend. 

Besides that, who cares about the speed figures? Forte overcame Post 11 in a two-turn dirt route at Gulfstream, and that is no small accomplishment.

Bettors face a tough decision on whether to accept the low price on Forte in the Kentucky Derby or look elsewhere for value in a race where the other contenders do not feel very far off the favorite in terms of speed or class.

Those are points to think about when considering whether to rely on Forte. Right now, it's way too early to make any final decisions.